Official NHA Assessment
Race 9: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING THURSDAY 19 JUNE MR 74 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Alone Time
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
3 / 20
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
6 / 20
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 20
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Falcon Strike 2 55.0 1 0.00 1.5 63 61 63 +0 2 Alone Time 4 57.0 2 1.10 0.0 68 68 68 +0 3 Valieva 3 55.0 3 1.35 2.5 75 59 65 -10 4 Phala Millions 4 54.0 4 1.85 0.0 62 62 62 +0 5 Faithful Neo 3 59.0 5 2.10 2.5 75 67 67 -8 6 Walled Garden 4 56.0 6 2.40 0.0 66 66 66 +0 7 Ensuing 2 62.0 7 2.65 1.5 78 75 75 -3 8 Vegas Hi Rise 6 60.5 8 4.65 0.0 75 75 75 +0 9 Godspeed 2 58.5 9 5.40 1.5 71 68 68 -3 10 Global Thunder 4 59.5 10 5.45 0.0 73 73 73 +0 11 Lady Of Memphis 3 59.0 11 5.55 2.5 75 67 67 -8 12 Hammies Hero 2 58.0 12 5.95 1.5 70 67 67 -3 13 Sigrid Swing 4 59.0 13 6.65 0.0 72 72 72 +0 14 Twentytwentyvision 2 59.5 14 7.05 1.5 73 70 70 -3 15 Micke's Bomb 4 58.0 15 7.75 0.0 70 70 70 +0 16 Circus Lights 5 57.0 16 8.15 0.0 68 68 68 +0 17 Golden Aspen 6 57.5 17 8.55 0.0 69 69 69 +0 18 Happy Wives 3 58.5 18 10.05 2.5 74 66 66 -8 19 Written In Stone 9 56.5 19 11.80 0.0 67 67 67 +0 99 Tokyo Medaglia 3 60.0 99 0.00 2.5 - 69 69 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcon Strike | 63 | 60 | 63 | -3 | 1.5 | - | |
| 2 | Alone Time Line | 68 | 68 | 68 | ✓ Match | 0.0 | ||
| 3 | Valieva | 75 | 78 | 65 | +13 | 2.5 | - | |
| 4 | Phala Millions | 62 | 66 | 62 | +4 | 0.0 | - | |
| 5 | Faithful Neo | 75 | 80 | 67 | +13 | 2.5 | - | |
| 6 | Walled Garden | 66 | 66 | 66 | ✓ Match | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Ensuing | 78 | 87 | 75 | +12 | 1.5 | - | |
| 8 | Vegas Hi Rise | 75 | 71 | 75 | -4 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Godspeed | 71 | 60 | 68 | -8 | 1.5 | - | |
| 10 | Global Thunder | 73 | 83 | 73 | +10 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | Lady Of Memphis | 75 | 72 | 67 | +5 | 2.5 | - | |
| 12 | Hammies Hero | 70 | 69 | 67 | +2 | 1.5 | - | |
| 13 | Sigrid Swing | 72 | 70 | 72 | -2 | 0.0 | - | |
| 14 | Twentytwentyvision | 73 | 80 | 70 | +10 | 1.5 | - | |
| 15 | Micke's Bomb | 70 | 60 | 70 | -10 | 0.0 | - | |
| 16 | Circus Lights | 68 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 0.0 | - | |
| 17 | Golden Aspen | 69 | 66 | 69 | -3 | 0.0 | - | |
| 18 | Happy Wives | 74 | 80 | 66 | +14 | 2.5 | - | |
| 19 | Written In Stone | 67 | 67 | 67 | ✓ Match | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Tokyo Medaglia | - | 68 | 69 | -1 | 2.5 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points