Official NHA Assessment

Race 9: NEXT FAIRVIEW RACEMEETING TUESDAY 12 APRIL MR 66 HANDICAP (Open)

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Line Horse
Timkat
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
2 / 17
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
5 / 17
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
7 / 17
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Ticket To Ride       4    59.5    1    0.00     3.5   65    58           65    +0
2    Timkat               7    58.0    2    0.50     0.0   62    62           62    +0
3    Stay The Course      4    59.0    3    0.60     3.5   64    57           57    -7
4    Winter Assembly      6    59.5    4    0.70     0.0   65    65           65    +0
5    Neverletugo          7    52.0    5    1.45     0.0   48    50           50    +2
6    Chief Executive      3    58.0    6    1.50     3.0   66    56           56    -10
7    Stanton Street       5    51.5    7    2.25     0.0   57    49           49    -8
8    Madame Patrice       5    50.5    8    2.50     0.0   48    47           47    -1
9    Kingston Rock        6    57.5    9    2.75     0.0   61    61           61    +0
10   Sonny Quinn          4    58.5    10   3.25     3.5   63    56           56    -7
11   Red Bishop           5    53.0    11   3.35     0.0   52    52           52    +0
12   Bumrah               4    53.5    12   3.85     3.5   56    46           46    -10
13   Autumn Sky           4    55.0    13   4.60     3.5   56    49           49    -7
14   For Luck Sake        10   53.0    14   4.70     0.0   52    52           52    +0
15   Spanish Fort         5    55.0    15   5.95     0.0   56    56           56    +0
16   Emerald Flame        5    60.0    16   7.20     0.0   66    66           66    +0
99   Tevye                4    60.5    99   0.00     3.5   -     60           60    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Ticket To Ride 65 62 65 -3 3.5 -
2 Timkat Line 62 58 62 -4 0.0
3 Stay The Course 64 67 57 +10 3.5 -
4 Winter Assembly 65 55 65 -10 0.0 -
5 Neverletugo 48 49 50 -1 0.0 -
6 Chief Executive 66 66 56 +10 3.0 -
7 Stanton Street 57 49 49 ✓ Match 0.0 -
8 Madame Patrice 48 45 47 -2 0.0 -
9 Kingston Rock 61 50 61 -11 0.0 -
10 Sonny Quinn 63 60 56 +4 3.5 -
11 Red Bishop 52 50 52 -2 0.0 -
12 Bumrah 56 53 46 +7 3.5 -
13 Autumn Sky 56 54 49 +5 3.5 -
14 For Luck Sake 52 48 52 -4 0.0 -
15 Spanish Fort 56 50 56 -6 0.0 -
16 Emerald Flame 66 35 66 -31 0.0 -
99 Tevye - 60 60 ✓ Match 3.5 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points