Official NHA Assessment
Race 10: NEXT TURFFONTEIN RACEMEETING THURSDAY 6 NOVEMBER FM 82 DIVIDED HANDICAP (F & M) (For Fillies and Mares)
Line Horse
Whirlybird
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 16
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
5 / 16
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
10 / 16
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Lost For Words 2 56.5 1 0.00 5.0 75 75 75 +0 2 Tuscan Romance 3 58.5 2 0.75 7.5 79 74 74 -5 3 Whirlybird 2 56.5 3 2.75 5.0 75 75 75 +0 4 United Offer 3 58.0 4 2.80 7.5 88 73 78 -10 5 Captain Selvie 2 55.5 5 3.00 5.0 83 73 73 -10 6 Time For Charity 5 52.0 6 4.80 0.0 66 76 76 +10 7 Opera Fan 2 52.5 7 5.50 5.0 80 67 70 -10 8 Clairwood Rose 2 56.5 8 8.10 5.0 85 75 75 -10 9 Red Hot Kisses 2 55.5 9 9.40 5.0 83 73 73 -10 10 Eight Hats 2 55.0 10 9.70 5.0 82 72 72 -10 11 Willow Lady 2 53.0 11 10.20 5.0 78 68 68 -10 12 Fully Committed 3 60.0 12 15.40 7.5 82 77 77 -5 13 Red Amber 2 54.5 13 15.90 5.0 81 71 71 -10 14 Limerick Lace 2 59.0 14 17.70 5.0 90 80 80 -10 15 Lady Elliot 2 55.5 15 20.20 5.0 73 73 73 +0 99 Season's Greetings 2 57.0 99 0.00 5.0 - 76 76 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lost For Words | 75 | 81 | 75 | +6 | 5.0 | - | |
| 2 | Tuscan Romance | 79 | 86 | 74 | +12 | 7.5 | - | |
| 3 | Whirlybird Line | 75 | 73 | 75 | -2 | 5.0 | ||
| 4 | United Offer | 88 | 89 | 78 | +11 | 7.5 | - | |
| 5 | Captain Selvie | 83 | 93 | 73 | +20 | 5.0 | - | |
| 6 | Time For Charity | 66 | 61 | 76 | -15 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Opera Fan | 80 | 81 | 70 | +11 | 5.0 | - | |
| 8 | Clairwood Rose | 85 | 77 | 75 | +2 | 5.0 | - | |
| 9 | Red Hot Kisses | 83 | 62 | 73 | -11 | 5.0 | - | |
| 10 | Eight Hats | 82 | 64 | 72 | -8 | 5.0 | - | |
| 11 | Willow Lady | 78 | 67 | 68 | -1 | 5.0 | - | |
| 12 | Fully Committed | 82 | 82 | 77 | +5 | 7.5 | - | |
| 13 | Red Amber | 81 | 71 | 71 | ✓ Match | 5.0 | - | |
| 14 | Limerick Lace | 90 | 87 | 80 | +7 | 5.0 | - | |
| 15 | Lady Elliot | 73 | 71 | 73 | -2 | 5.0 | - | |
| 99 | Season's Greetings | - | 87 | 76 | +11 | 5.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points