Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT TURFFONTEIN RACEMEETING SUNDAY 7 DECEMBER FM 78 DIVIDED HANDICAP (F & M) (For Fillies and Mares)
Line Horse
She's All Mine
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 16
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 16
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
10 / 16
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Western Wishes 5 55.5 1 0.00 0.0 69 89 69 +0 2 Vamanos 2 57.5 2 1.25 4.0 81 85 85 +4 3 She's All Mine 3 58.0 3 2.15 6.0 82 82 82 +0 4 Crystal Grove 2 58.0 4 2.25 4.0 82 86 86 +4 5 Captain Selvie 2 58.5 5 2.55 4.0 83 87 87 +4 6 Season's Greetings 2 60.0 6 2.95 4.0 86 90 90 +4 7 Eight Hats 2 56.0 7 3.55 4.0 78 82 82 +4 8 Concordia 2 50.5 8 3.85 4.0 75 71 71 -4 9 Lady Elliot 2 57.5 9 8.05 4.0 73 85 85 +12 10 Windsor Silk 2 59.0 10 8.55 4.0 84 88 88 +4 11 Blup Blup 2 56.0 11 15.55 4.0 70 82 82 +12 99 Victory In Orleans 2 59.0 99 0.00 4.0 - 88 88 +0 99 There She Goes 6 54.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 87 87 +0 99 Arilena 6 56.0 99 0.00 0.0 - 90 90 +0 99 Willow Lady 2 56.0 99 0.00 4.0 - 82 82 +0 99 Quiet Winter 2 58.0 99 0.00 4.0 - 86 86 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Wishes | 69 | 74 | 69 | +5 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | Vamanos | 81 | 87 | 85 | +2 | 4.0 | - | |
| 3 | She's All Mine Line | 82 | 79 | 82 | -3 | 6.0 | ||
| 4 | Crystal Grove | 82 | 79 | 86 | -7 | 4.0 | - | |
| 5 | Captain Selvie | 83 | 93 | 87 | +6 | 4.0 | - | |
| 6 | Season's Greetings | 86 | 87 | 90 | -3 | 4.0 | - | |
| 7 | Eight Hats | 78 | 64 | 82 | -18 | 4.0 | - | |
| 8 | Concordia | 75 | 69 | 71 | -2 | 4.0 | - | |
| 9 | Lady Elliot | 73 | 71 | 85 | -14 | 4.0 | - | |
| 10 | Windsor Silk | 84 | 76 | 88 | -12 | 4.0 | - | |
| 11 | Blup Blup | 70 | 68 | 82 | -14 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | Victory In Orleans | - | 84 | 88 | -4 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | There She Goes | - | 77 | 87 | -10 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Arilena | - | 75 | 90 | -15 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Willow Lady | - | 67 | 82 | -15 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | Quiet Winter | - | 79 | 86 | -7 | 4.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points