Official NHA Assessment
Race 5: SplashOut CAPE MERCHANTS (Grade 2) (Handicap for 3-year-old Horses and older)
Line Horse
O'Tenikwa
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
3 / 18
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
7 / 18
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 18
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Outlaw King 2 58.5 1 0.00 4.0 115 119 115 +0 2 I Am Giant 2 62.0 2 0.20 4.0 122 126 126 +4 3 O'Tenikwa 3 60.0 3 1.20 6.0 118 118 118 +0 4 Teflon Man 4 52.0 4 1.95 7.0 102 100 100 -2 5 The Us Of A 3 53.5 5 2.45 6.0 104 105 105 +1 6 Dumbledore 4 54.0 6 5.20 7.0 106 104 104 -2 7 Raven Black 2 52.0 7 5.40 4.0 100 106 106 +6 8 Mai Sensation 3 55.0 8 6.65 6.0 108 108 108 +0 9 Meu Capitano 4 57.5 9 6.95 7.0 113 111 111 -2 10 Surjay 3 62.0 10 7.15 6.0 122 122 122 +0 11 Powerandtheglory 3 52.0 11 7.45 6.0 96 102 102 +6 12 Cafe Culture 3 62.0 12 7.50 6.0 122 122 122 +0 13 Lion Rampart 3 57.5 13 7.90 6.0 113 113 113 +0 14 Gem King 6 58.5 14 8.20 0.0 115 127 127 +12 15 Dance Variety 2 57.5 15 8.30 4.0 113 117 117 +4 16 Air Raid 2 52.5 16 9.30 4.0 97 107 107 +10 17 King Regent 3 57.0 17 9.35 6.0 112 112 112 +0 18 Quantum Theory 5 57.5 18 9.65 0.0 113 125 125 +12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Outlaw King | 115 | 123 | 115 | +8 | 4.0 | - | |
| 2 | I Am Giant | 122 | 124 | 126 | -2 | 4.0 | - | |
| 3 | O'Tenikwa Line | 118 | 121 | 118 | +3 | 6.0 | ||
| 4 | Teflon Man | 102 | 106 | 100 | +6 | 7.0 | - | |
| 5 | The Us Of A | 104 | 104 | 105 | -1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 6 | Dumbledore | 106 | 105 | 104 | +1 | 7.0 | - | |
| 7 | Raven Black | 100 | 99 | 106 | -7 | 4.0 | - | |
| 8 | Mai Sensation | 108 | 108 | 108 | ✓ Match | 6.0 | - | |
| 9 | Meu Capitano | 113 | 111 | 111 | ✓ Match | 7.0 | - | |
| 10 | Surjay | 122 | 121 | 122 | -1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 11 | Powerandtheglory | 96 | 96 | 102 | -6 | 6.0 | - | |
| 12 | Cafe Culture | 122 | 118 | 122 | -4 | 6.0 | - | |
| 13 | Lion Rampart | 113 | 113 | 113 | ✓ Match | 6.0 | - | |
| 14 | Gem King | 115 | 108 | 127 | -19 | 0.0 | - | |
| 15 | Dance Variety | 113 | 114 | 117 | -3 | 4.0 | - | |
| 16 | Air Raid | 97 | 95 | 107 | -12 | 4.0 | - | |
| 17 | King Regent | 112 | 106 | 112 | -6 | 6.0 | - | |
| 18 | Quantum Theory | 113 | 112 | 125 | -13 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points