Official NHA Assessment

Race 10: NEXT TURFFONTEIN RACEMEETING THURSDAY 1 JANUARY MR 80 HANDICAP (Open)

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Line Horse
Guerilla Warfare
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 11
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
5 / 11
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
2 / 11
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Clever Trevor        2    58.0    1    0.00     0.0   86    82           86    +0
2    Salute The Flag      3    61.5    2    0.10     5.0   83    79           79    -4
3    Guerilla Warfare     3    58.5    3    0.85     5.0   77    77           77    +0
4    Longsword            2    58.5    4    2.75     0.0   77    85           85    +8
5    Sea Shanty           4    55.5    5    2.95     3.0   74    73           73    -1
6    My Lucky Charm       3    56.0    6    4.85     5.0   82    68           72    -10
7    Tommy Atkins         3    56.5    7    4.90     5.0   83    69           73    -10
8    Spy Story            3    55.0    8    6.10     5.0   70    66           66    -4
9    King Of Numbers      4    60.0    9    14.50    3.0   80    80           80    +0
99   Father Christmas     3    59.5    99   0.00     5.0   -     75           75    +0
99   War Of Kingdoms      3    61.5    99   0.00     5.0   -     79           79    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Clever Trevor 86 89 86 +3 0.0 -
2 Salute The Flag 83 81 79 +2 5.0 -
3 Guerilla Warfare Line 77 75 77 -2 5.0
4 Longsword 77 72 85 -13 0.0 -
5 Sea Shanty 74 71 73 -2 3.0 -
6 My Lucky Charm 82 73 72 +1 5.0 -
7 Tommy Atkins 83 83 73 +10 5.0 -
8 Spy Story 70 66 66 ✓ Match 5.0 -
9 King Of Numbers 80 75 80 -5 3.0 -
99 Father Christmas - 79 75 +4 5.0 -
99 War Of Kingdoms - 83 79 +4 5.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points