Official NHA Assessment

Race 7: Hollywoodbets BRIGHT FUTURE C STAKES (For All Horses)

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Line Horse
Marcus Aurelius
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
2 / 12
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 12
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
4 / 12
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Sommerstern          4    58.5    1    0.00     2.5   72    75           75    +3
2    Devil A Saint        4    56.0    2    0.40     2.5   68    75           75    +7
3    Ocean Sky            3    58.5    3    1.65     4.0   73    75           75    +2
4    Marcus Aurelius      2    60.0    4    2.15     0.0   86    86           86    +0
5    My Only Weakness     3    61.5    5    2.55     4.0   85    80           80    -5
6    Thomas Jenkins       3    61.5    6    3.05     4.0   79    80           80    +1
7    Kebonalesedi         5    57.0    7    5.55     0.0   69    77           77    +8
8    Man Of Consequence   2    58.5    8    5.95     0.0   81    80           80    -1
9    Smart Horse          3    58.5    9    7.45     4.0   73    72           72    -1
99   Primal Instinct      3    60.0    99   0.00     4.0   -     75           75    +0
99   Carriacou            3    61.5    99   0.00     4.0   -     78           78    +0
99   In A Timely Manner   2    60.0    99   0.00     0.0   -     83           83    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Sommerstern 72 79 75 +4 2.5 -
2 Devil A Saint 68 69 75 -6 2.5 -
3 Ocean Sky 73 72 75 -3 4.0 -
4 Marcus Aurelius Line 86 85 86 -1 0.0
5 My Only Weakness 85 84 80 +4 4.0 -
6 Thomas Jenkins 79 76 80 -4 4.0 -
7 Kebonalesedi 69 67 77 -10 0.0 -
8 Man Of Consequence 81 80 80 ✓ Match 0.0 -
9 Smart Horse 73 64 72 -8 4.0 -
99 Primal Instinct - 78 75 +3 4.0 -
99 Carriacou - 78 78 ✓ Match 4.0 -
99 In A Timely Manner - 92 83 +9 0.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points