Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: Hollywoodbets BRIGHT FUTURE MR 74 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Path To Fortune
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 15
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 15
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
10 / 15
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Letaba 6 54.5 1 0.00 0.0 71 73 71 +0 2 Philispiel 7 48.0 2 0.80 0.0 57 60 60 +3 3 Botz 3 59.0 3 0.85 3.0 76 76 76 +0 4 Path To Fortune 3 56.5 4 2.85 3.0 71 71 71 +0 5 Final Destiny 4 54.5 5 3.15 3.5 63 66 66 +3 6 Cape Eagle 7 58.5 6 4.25 0.0 71 81 81 +10 7 Procrastinator 4 53.0 7 4.40 3.5 60 63 63 +3 8 Parktown 5 59.0 8 5.50 0.0 72 82 82 +10 9 Canadian Bolt 6 58.0 9 6.20 0.0 70 80 80 +10 10 Bernie's Dream 4 59.0 10 6.45 3.5 75 75 75 +0 11 Giambattista 3 57.5 11 9.55 3.0 73 73 73 +0 12 Tom Bombadil 5 49.5 12 10.75 0.0 61 63 63 +2 13 Pedro 6 59.0 13 14.95 0.0 76 82 82 +6 99 Flying The Star 4 57.5 99 0.00 3.5 - 72 72 +0 99 The Tinkerman 3 60.5 99 0.00 3.0 - 79 79 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Letaba | 71 | 73 | 71 | +2 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | Philispiel | 57 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 0.0 | - | |
| 3 | Botz | 76 | 77 | 76 | +1 | 3.0 | - | |
| 4 | Path To Fortune Line | 71 | 56 | 71 | -15 | 3.0 | ||
| 5 | Final Destiny | 63 | 50 | 66 | -16 | 3.5 | - | |
| 6 | Cape Eagle | 71 | 106 | 81 | +25 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Procrastinator | 60 | 60 | 63 | -3 | 3.5 | - | |
| 8 | Parktown | 72 | 69 | 82 | -13 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Canadian Bolt | 70 | 67 | 80 | -13 | 0.0 | - | |
| 10 | Bernie's Dream | 75 | 69 | 75 | -6 | 3.5 | - | |
| 11 | Giambattista | 73 | 87 | 73 | +14 | 3.0 | - | |
| 12 | Tom Bombadil | 61 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 0.0 | - | |
| 13 | Pedro | 76 | 72 | 82 | -10 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Flying The Star | - | 67 | 72 | -5 | 3.5 | - | |
| 99 | The Tinkerman | - | 76 | 79 | -3 | 3.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points