Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: NEXT FAIRVIEW RACEMEETING TUESDAY 10 MARCH MIDDLE STAKES (For All Horses)

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Line Horse
Juan Carlos
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 15
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 15
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
11 / 15
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Bad Medicine         3    61.5    1    0.00     5.0   96    79           79    -17
2    Anatolian Silver     3    56.5    2    0.50     5.0   78    75           75    -3
3    Juan Carlos          7    60.5    3    0.60     0.0   93    93           93    +0
4    Darling Girl         2    48.5    4    4.10     0.0   54    65           65    +11
5    Curtiss Condor       3    56.0    5    4.35     5.0   79    69           69    -10
6    Henry's Hedge        3    54.0    6    5.60     5.0   75    64           65    -10
7    Garden Sun           3    52.0    7    6.85     5.0   69    60           60    -9
8    Burning Man          3    54.0    8    9.35     5.0   74    64           64    -10
9    Home Reef            3    58.0    9    9.85     5.0   88    72           78    -10
10   George Handel        4    58.0    10   15.35    2.0   86    78           78    -8
11   Twenty Drachma's     4    58.0    11   17.60    2.0   87    78           78    -9
12   Silvano's Song       3    54.5    12   18.35    5.0   76    65           66    -10
13   Spoil Yourself       2    46.5    13   99.92    0.0   73    59           63    -10
14   Welsh Starlet        3    47.5    14   99.92    5.0   62    51           52    -10
15   Only A Poet          3    50.5    15   99.92    5.0   59    57           57    -2
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Bad Medicine 96 100 79 +21 5.0 -
2 Anatolian Silver 78 78 75 +3 5.0 -
3 Juan Carlos Line 93 93 93 ✓ Match 0.0
4 Darling Girl 54 54 65 -11 0.0 -
5 Curtiss Condor 79 79 69 +10 5.0 -
6 Henry's Hedge 75 75 65 +10 5.0 -
7 Garden Sun 69 69 60 +9 5.0 -
8 Burning Man 74 74 64 +10 5.0 -
9 Home Reef 88 87 78 +9 5.0 -
10 George Handel 86 85 78 +7 2.0 -
11 Twenty Drachma's 87 83 78 +5 2.0 -
12 Silvano's Song 76 74 66 +8 5.0 -
13 Spoil Yourself 73 73 63 +10 0.0 -
14 Welsh Starlet 62 63 52 +11 5.0 -
15 Only A Poet 59 59 57 +2 5.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points