Official NHA Assessment

Race 7: Hollywoodbets DURBAN JULY (Grade 1) (Open to all Horses)

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Line Horse

Safe Passage

Reference for assessment

Exact Matches

2 / 20

Calculated = Official

Close Matches

3 / 20

Within 2 points

Significant Diffs

14 / 20

More than 5 points

Detailed Assessment

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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1    Sparkling Water      4    53.5    1    0.00     0.5   116   120          120   +4
2    Jet Dark             4    60.0    2    3.00     0.5   129   136          136   +7
3    Safe Passage         3    54.5    3    3.30     2.0   122   122          122   +0
4    Do It Again          7    58.5    4    3.70     0.0   126   134          134   +8
5    Kommetdieding        4    60.0    5    4.10     0.5   129   135          135   +6
6    Airways Law          4    53.0    6    5.30     0.5   108   119          119   +11
7    Astrix               5    56.5    7    5.60     0.0   122   127          127   +5
8    Al Muthana (AUS)     4    58.0    8    5.80     0.5   125   129          129   +4
9    Aragosta             3    53.0    9    5.90     2.0   118   116          116   -2
10   Pomp And Power       3    53.0    10   7.20     2.0   118   116          116   -2
11   Hoedspruit           4    53.5    11   7.40     0.5   116   120          120   +4
12   Second Base          4    54.5    12   9.30     0.5   118   122          122   +4
13   Waterberry Lane      6    53.0    13   9.80     0.0   117   120          120   +3
14   Linebacker           4    58.5    14   14.40    0.5   126   130          130   +4
15   Belgarion            6    59.5    15   15.10    0.0   128   133          133   +5
16   Puerto Manzano (ARG  4    55.5    16   17.60    0.5   120   124          124   +4
17   Flying Carpet        4    53.5    17   20.10    0.5   116   120          120   +4
18   Red Saxon            3    53.0    18   20.80    2.0   118   116          116   -2
99   Nebraas              8    54.5    99   0.00     0.0   -     123          123   +0
99   Zapatillas           3    53.0    99   0.00     2.0   -     116          116   +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos	Horse	Pre-Rating	Official New	Calculated	Discrepancy	WFA (kg)	Line Horse
1	Sparkling Water	116	122	120	+2	0.5	-
2	Jet Dark	129	130	136	-6	0.5	-
3	Safe Passage Line	122	108	122	-14	2.0
4	Do It Again	126	121	134	-13	0.0	-
5	Kommetdieding	129	129	135	-6	0.5	-
6	Airways Law	108	102	119	-17	0.5	-
7	Astrix	122	118	127	-9	0.0	-
8	Al Muthana (AUS)	125	114	129	-15	0.5	-
9	Aragosta	118	109	116	-7	2.0	-
10	Pomp And Power	118	120	116	+4	2.0	-
11	Hoedspruit	116	109	120	-11	0.5	-
12	Second Base	118	99	122	-23	0.5	-
13	Waterberry Lane	117	108	120	-12	0.0	-
14	Linebacker	126	108	130	-22	0.5	-
15	Belgarion	128	121	133	-12	0.0	-
16	Puerto Manzano (ARG)	120	119	124	-5	0.5	-
17	Flying Carpet	116	116	120	-4	0.5	-
18	Red Saxon	118	116	116	✓ Match	2.0	-
99	Nebraas	-	101	123	-22	0.0	-
99	Zapatillas	-	116	116	✓ Match	2.0	-

Assessment Methodology

Calculation Steps:

Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA
Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)

Key Formulas:

Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points