Official NHA Assessment
Race 9: Hollywoodbets Bright Future MR 74 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Winter Air
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 11
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
1 / 11
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
9 / 11
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Running Rifles 3 62.0 1 0.00 6.0 78 75 78 +0 2 Max The Otter 2 60.0 2 1.00 0.0 86 87 87 +1 3 Winter Air 3 57.0 3 1.75 6.0 68 68 68 +0 4 Tizona 3 61.0 4 1.95 6.0 76 76 76 +0 5 Cheeky Laddie 5 57.5 5 2.25 0.0 81 81 81 +0 6 Radames 5 54.5 6 4.50 0.0 63 72 72 +9 7 William The First 2 55.5 7 4.55 0.0 77 74 74 -3 8 Path Of Choice 5 60.5 8 5.05 0.0 75 84 84 +9 9 Masterful Guy 3 55.5 9 6.05 6.0 65 62 62 -3 10 Jewlray 3 57.0 10 6.45 6.0 68 65 65 -3 11 Major Winter 5 57.5 11 11.95 0.0 69 78 78 +9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Running Rifles | 78 | 95 | 78 | +17 | 6.0 | - | |
| 2 | Max The Otter | 86 | 72 | 87 | -15 | 0.0 | - | |
| 3 | Winter Air Line | 68 | 62 | 68 | -6 | 6.0 | ||
| 4 | Tizona | 76 | 83 | 76 | +7 | 6.0 | - | |
| 5 | Cheeky Laddie | 81 | 87 | 81 | +6 | 0.0 | - | |
| 6 | Radames | 63 | 56 | 72 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | William The First | 77 | 75 | 74 | +1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | Path Of Choice | 75 | 68 | 84 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Masterful Guy | 65 | 58 | 62 | -4 | 6.0 | - | |
| 10 | Jewlray | 68 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 6.0 | - | |
| 11 | Major Winter | 69 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points