Official NHA Assessment
Race 4: D & K PLUMBING & ALUMINIUM GUTTERS MAIDEN PLATE (For all Maidens)
Line Horse
Axel Collins
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 10
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 10
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
6 / 10
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Aspoestertjie 5 57.5 1 0.00 0.0 70 71 70 +0 2 Twice The Trinity 3 60.0 2 1.50 6.0 - 64 64 +64 3 Axel Collins 5 60.0 3 2.00 0.0 76 76 76 +0 4 Swiss Paradise 3 55.0 4 2.70 6.0 - 54 54 +54 5 Buster Keaton 3 60.0 5 3.80 6.0 63 64 64 +1 6 Sirnihaallongsword 4 60.0 6 3.90 7.0 53 62 62 +9 7 Fine Admiral 3 60.0 7 4.40 6.0 - 64 64 +64 8 Vivir Mi Vida 2 55.0 8 5.30 4.0 56 58 58 +2 9 Vickers Viscount 3 60.0 9 18.30 6.0 - 64 64 +64 99 Last Survivor 2 60.0 99 0.00 4.0 - 68 68 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aspoestertjie | 70 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | Twice The Trinity | - | 72 | 64 | +8 | 6.0 | - | |
| 3 | Axel Collins Line | 76 | 55 | 76 | -21 | 0.0 | ||
| 4 | Swiss Paradise | - | 60 | 54 | +6 | 6.0 | - | |
| 5 | Buster Keaton | 63 | 60 | 64 | -4 | 6.0 | - | |
| 6 | Sirnihaallongsword | 53 | 69 | 62 | +7 | 7.0 | - | |
| 7 | Fine Admiral | - | 73 | 64 | +9 | 6.0 | - | |
| 8 | Vivir Mi Vida | 56 | 60 | 58 | +2 | 4.0 | - | |
| 9 | Vickers Viscount | - | 31 | 64 | -33 | 6.0 | - | |
| 99 | Last Survivor | - | 64 | 68 | -4 | 4.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points