Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT NELSON MANDELA BAY RACING RACEMEETING FRIDAY 28 JANUARY MR 68 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Winter Vacation
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 20
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 20
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
12 / 20
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Emperors Decree 4 58.5 1 0.00 6.0 65 65 65 +0 2 Brass Bell 8 60.5 2 1.50 0.0 69 81 81 +12 3 Chaumaso 5 53.5 3 2.25 0.0 55 67 67 +12 4 Winter Vacation 4 56.5 4 2.30 6.0 61 61 61 +0 5 Great Guy 5 54.5 5 2.80 0.0 57 69 69 +12 6 Timkat 7 58.0 6 3.30 0.0 64 76 76 +12 7 Bold Captain 3 57.5 7 3.80 5.0 70 65 65 -5 8 All The Sevens 6 61.0 8 3.90 0.0 70 82 82 +12 9 Uncle Charlie 6 52.0 9 4.15 0.0 52 64 64 +12 10 Wicked Grin 5 54.5 10 4.20 0.0 57 69 69 +12 11 The Ghan 4 59.5 11 4.45 6.0 67 67 67 +0 12 Frankie Two Shoes 6 55.5 12 5.95 0.0 59 71 71 +12 13 Kingston Rock 6 57.5 13 6.45 0.0 63 75 75 +12 14 Tsar Peter 3 56.5 14 12.70 5.0 68 63 63 -5 15 Strong Casha 4 53.5 15 13.95 6.0 63 55 55 -8 16 Guaquistador 4 55.0 16 15.70 6.0 58 58 58 +0 99 Sanctity 4 54.5 99 0.00 6.0 - 57 57 +0 99 Zacpack Assassin 3 57.5 99 0.00 5.0 - 65 65 +0 99 Storm Chaser 4 58.0 99 0.00 6.0 - 64 64 +0 99 Daleel 3 62.0 99 0.00 5.0 - 74 74 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emperors Decree | 65 | 66 | 65 | +1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 2 | Brass Bell | 69 | 55 | 81 | -26 | 0.0 | - | |
| 3 | Chaumaso | 55 | 54 | 67 | -13 | 0.0 | - | |
| 4 | Winter Vacation Line | 61 | 55 | 61 | -6 | 6.0 | ||
| 5 | Great Guy | 57 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 0.0 | - | |
| 6 | Timkat | 64 | 58 | 76 | -18 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Bold Captain | 70 | 67 | 65 | +2 | 5.0 | - | |
| 8 | All The Sevens | 70 | 67 | 82 | -15 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Uncle Charlie | 52 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 10 | Wicked Grin | 57 | 51 | 69 | -18 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | The Ghan | 67 | 62 | 67 | -5 | 6.0 | - | |
| 12 | Frankie Two Shoes | 59 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 0.0 | - | |
| 13 | Kingston Rock | 63 | 50 | 75 | -25 | 0.0 | - | |
| 14 | Tsar Peter | 68 | 62 | 63 | -1 | 5.0 | - | |
| 15 | Strong Casha | 63 | 59 | 55 | +4 | 6.0 | - | |
| 16 | Guaquistador | 58 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 6.0 | - | |
| 99 | Sanctity | - | 61 | 57 | +4 | 6.0 | - | |
| 99 | Zacpack Assassin | - | 70 | 65 | +5 | 5.0 | - | |
| 99 | Storm Chaser | - | 69 | 64 | +5 | 6.0 | - | |
| 99 | Daleel | - | 66 | 74 | -8 | 5.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points