Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING THURSDAY 20 APRIL WORK RIDERS MAIDEN PLATE (For all Maidens. R15 000 Win bonus ROA Members)

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Line Horse
Carnelo
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 11
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 11
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 11
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Carnelo              6    60.0    1    0.00     0.0   56    56           56    +0
2    Every Cloud          3    60.0    2    1.75     2.5   -     54           54    +54
3    Fully Loaded         5    60.0    3    3.50     0.0   -     57           57    +57
4    Big Five             3    60.0    4    5.25     2.5   56    51           51    -5
5    Justcruisinalong     3    60.0    5    7.50     2.5   -     51           51    +51
6    Skyjet               2    60.0    6    13.00    0.0   62    56           56    -6
7    Sir Lewis            4    60.0    7    22.00    1.0   -     54           54    +54
8    Royal Raphael        3    60.0    8    39.00    2.5   64    51           54    -10
99   Total Surrender      5    60.0    99   0.00     0.0   -     56           56    +0
99   Activator            3    60.0    99   0.00     2.5   -     51           51    +0
99   Celtic Rush          5    60.0    99   0.00     0.0   -     56           56    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Carnelo Line 56 75 56 +19 0.0
2 Every Cloud - 72 54 +18 2.5 -
3 Fully Loaded - 94 57 +37 0.0 -
4 Big Five 56 53 51 +2 2.5 -
5 Justcruisinalong - 45 51 -6 2.5 -
6 Skyjet 62 57 56 +1 0.0 -
7 Sir Lewis - - 54 -54 1.0 -
8 Royal Raphael 64 54 54 ✓ Match 2.5 -
99 Total Surrender - 74 56 +18 0.0 -
99 Activator - 66 51 +15 2.5 -
99 Celtic Rush - 69 56 +13 0.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points