Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: Hollywoodbets BRIGHT FUTURE MR 73 HANDICAP (Open)

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Line Horse
Count Marsh
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 15
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 15
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
7 / 15
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Forest Jump          8    60.0    1    0.00     0.0   73    76           73    +0
2    Count Marsh          7    55.0    2    0.30     0.0   71    71           71    +0
3    Eddie The Mover      2    59.5    3    0.50     0.0   74    80           80    +6
4    Rugger Bugger        3    58.5    4    1.40     0.5   72    75           75    +3
4    Parmenion            5    59.5    4    1.40     0.0   77    78           78    +1
6    Saipan               5    52.0    6    1.60     0.0   54    63           63    +9
7    Winter Waves         7    60.0    7    2.50     0.0   73    78           78    +5
8    Rafiki               2    57.0    8    3.90     0.0   69    71           71    +2
9    Lucky Dollar         2    59.5    9    4.20     0.0   74    76           76    +2
10   Fibonacci            2    58.5    10   6.90     0.0   88    73           78    -10
11   Giambattista         3    57.0    11   6.95     0.5   67    69           69    +2
12   White Cedar          6    60.5    12   13.15    0.0   74    77           77    +3
99   Blackwhitedynamite   3    62.0    99   0.00     0.5   -     79           79    +0
99   Roy's July Magic     4    53.5    99   0.00     0.5   -     62           62    +0
99   Prosper's Gift       2    55.5    99   0.00     0.0   -     67           67    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Forest Jump 73 62 73 -11 0.0 -
2 Count Marsh Line 71 52 71 -19 0.0
3 Eddie The Mover 74 76 80 -4 0.0 -
4 Rugger Bugger 72 77 75 +2 0.5 -
4 Parmenion 77 78 78 ✓ Match 0.0 -
6 Saipan 54 52 63 -11 0.0 -
7 Winter Waves 73 77 78 -1 0.0 -
8 Rafiki 69 67 71 -4 0.0 -
9 Lucky Dollar 74 85 76 +9 0.0 -
10 Fibonacci 88 73 78 -5 0.0 -
11 Giambattista 67 87 69 +18 0.5 -
12 White Cedar 74 73 77 -4 0.0 -
99 Blackwhitedynamite - 86 79 +7 0.5 -
99 Roy's July Magic - 48 62 -14 0.5 -
99 Prosper's Gift - 64 67 -3 0.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points