Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: Hollywoodbets BRIGHT FUTURE FM 74 HANDICAP (F & M) (For Fillies and Mares)

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Line Horse
Harley's Fate
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 11
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 11
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
6 / 11
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Mel's Princess       3    57.5    1    0.00     9.5   77    63           77    +0
2    Chelsea Flower       6    54.0    2    0.50     0.0   62    75           75    +13
3    Harley's Fate        2    59.5    3    1.00     6.5   73    73           73    +0
4    Aspoestertjie        5    57.5    4    1.70     0.0   72    82           82    +10
5    Bitcoin Baby         2    58.5    5    3.50     6.5   84    71           74    -10
6    Twinklelittlestar    2    59.5    6    4.20     6.5   86    73           76    -10
7    Rafeef's Choice      5    60.5    7    5.00     0.0   75    88           88    +13
8    Can't Catch Me       5    56.5    8    5.25     0.0   67    80           80    +13
9    Swiss Paradise       3    56.5    9    6.95     9.5   67    61           61    -6
99   Princess Arlowe      2    60.0    99   0.00     6.5   -     74           74    +0
99   Maggie Smith         2    57.0    99   0.00     6.5   -     68           68    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Mel's Princess 77 77 77 ✓ Match 9.5 -
2 Chelsea Flower 62 77 75 +2 0.0 -
3 Harley's Fate Line 73 67 73 -6 6.5
4 Aspoestertjie 72 68 82 -14 0.0 -
5 Bitcoin Baby 84 79 74 +5 6.5 -
6 Twinklelittlestar 86 66 76 -10 6.5 -
7 Rafeef's Choice 75 71 88 -17 0.0 -
8 Can't Catch Me 67 58 80 -22 0.0 -
9 Swiss Paradise 67 60 61 -1 9.5 -
99 Princess Arlowe - 86 74 +12 6.5 -
99 Maggie Smith - 72 68 +4 6.5 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points