Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING THURSDAY 12 OCTOBER MR 80 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Ziyasha
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 14
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
0 / 14
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
14 / 14
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Exchange Student 4 60.0 1 0.00 10.0 91 85 91 +0 2 Ice Star 2 60.0 2 0.40 5.5 91 94 94 +3 3 Ziyasha 2 59.5 3 2.75 5.5 93 93 93 +0 4 Axel Collins 5 57.0 4 3.00 0.0 74 99 99 +25 5 Brosnan 2 57.5 5 3.75 5.5 75 89 89 +14 6 Pendragon 5 57.5 6 4.25 0.0 75 100 100 +25 7 Happy Analia 4 53.5 7 4.35 10.0 78 72 72 -6 8 Fennec Fox 5 55.0 8 4.45 0.0 70 95 95 +25 9 Micke's Bomb 4 56.0 9 4.50 10.0 83 77 77 -6 10 Daring Act 4 59.0 10 6.00 10.0 89 83 83 -6 11 Successful Secret 4 55.5 11 6.50 10.0 74 76 76 +2 12 Rozara 3 58.0 12 8.25 8.5 76 84 84 +8 99 Kings Road 5 63.0 99 0.00 0.0 - 111 111 +0 99 Covert Operator 6 61.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 108 108 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exchange Student | 91 | 104 | 91 | +13 | 10.0 | - | |
| 2 | Ice Star | 91 | 112 | 94 | +18 | 5.5 | - | |
| 3 | Ziyasha Line | 93 | 118 | 93 | +25 | 5.5 | ||
| 4 | Axel Collins | 74 | 55 | 99 | -44 | 0.0 | - | |
| 5 | Brosnan | 75 | 75 | 89 | -14 | 5.5 | - | |
| 6 | Pendragon | 75 | 73 | 100 | -27 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Happy Analia | 78 | 78 | 72 | +6 | 10.0 | - | |
| 8 | Fennec Fox | 70 | 64 | 95 | -31 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Micke's Bomb | 83 | 60 | 77 | -17 | 10.0 | - | |
| 10 | Daring Act | 89 | 60 | 83 | -23 | 10.0 | - | |
| 11 | Successful Secret | 74 | 65 | 76 | -11 | 10.0 | - | |
| 12 | Rozara | 76 | 73 | 84 | -11 | 8.5 | - | |
| 99 | Kings Road | - | 79 | 111 | -32 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Covert Operator | - | 77 | 108 | -31 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points