Official NHA Assessment
Race 1: WELCOME TO NELSON MANDELA BAY RACING MAIDEN PLATE (For Maidens R15 000 Win Bonus ROA Members)
Line Horse
Graduation Time
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 20
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
1 / 20
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
16 / 20
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Ubisika 2 59.0 1 0.00 5.0 70 78 76 +6 2 Graduation Time 4 59.0 2 1.25 9.0 70 70 70 +0 3 Captain Efficient 2 59.0 3 2.00 5.0 73 78 78 +5 4 Enchanted Sky 2 56.5 4 2.75 5.0 76 73 73 -3 5 Fire Chaser 2 56.5 5 2.80 5.0 82 73 73 -9 6 Miraculous Man 3 60.0 6 5.30 7.5 62 75 75 +13 7 Winning Grace 2 56.5 7 7.80 5.0 73 73 73 +0 8 Captivate 2 56.5 8 10.55 5.0 70 73 73 +3 9 Midnight Advocator 3 60.0 9 10.65 7.5 61 75 75 +14 10 Ponte Vecchio 2 57.5 10 12.15 5.0 61 75 75 +14 11 Greek Mafia 5 60.0 11 12.90 0.0 47 90 90 +43 12 Flaming Drum 3 56.0 12 14.15 7.5 53 67 67 +14 13 Royal Statesman 2 59.0 13 14.40 5.0 62 78 78 +16 14 Elusive Hunter 4 56.5 14 17.65 9.0 - 65 65 +65 15 Tune Again 6 57.5 15 18.90 0.0 40 85 85 +45 16 Tenstar 2 59.0 16 19.65 5.0 66 78 78 +12 17 Future Africa 2 59.0 17 22.90 5.0 - 78 78 +78 18 Pantador 2 59.0 18 33.40 5.0 27 78 78 +51 99 Dancing In Winter 4 56.5 99 0.00 9.0 - 65 65 +0 99 Lord Capulet 3 59.0 99 0.00 7.5 - 73 73 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ubisika | 70 | 80 | 76 | +4 | 5.0 | - | |
| 2 | Graduation Time Line | 70 | 70 | 70 | ✓ Match | 9.0 | ||
| 3 | Captain Efficient | 73 | 66 | 78 | -12 | 5.0 | - | |
| 4 | Enchanted Sky | 76 | 78 | 73 | +5 | 5.0 | - | |
| 5 | Fire Chaser | 82 | 52 | 73 | -21 | 5.0 | - | |
| 6 | Miraculous Man | 62 | 45 | 75 | -30 | 7.5 | - | |
| 7 | Winning Grace | 73 | 62 | 73 | -11 | 5.0 | - | |
| 8 | Captivate | 70 | 63 | 73 | -10 | 5.0 | - | |
| 9 | Midnight Advocator | 61 | 48 | 75 | -27 | 7.5 | - | |
| 10 | Ponte Vecchio | 61 | 56 | 75 | -19 | 5.0 | - | |
| 11 | Greek Mafia | 47 | 45 | 90 | -45 | 0.0 | - | |
| 12 | Flaming Drum | 53 | 50 | 67 | -17 | 7.5 | - | |
| 13 | Royal Statesman | 62 | 54 | 78 | -24 | 5.0 | - | |
| 14 | Elusive Hunter | - | 50 | 65 | -15 | 9.0 | - | |
| 15 | Tune Again | 40 | 50 | 85 | -35 | 0.0 | - | |
| 16 | Tenstar | 66 | 60 | 78 | -18 | 5.0 | - | |
| 17 | Future Africa | - | 72 | 78 | -6 | 5.0 | - | |
| 18 | Pantador | 27 | 40 | 78 | -38 | 5.0 | - | |
| 99 | Dancing In Winter | - | 70 | 65 | +5 | 9.0 | - | |
| 99 | Lord Capulet | - | 55 | 73 | -18 | 7.5 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points