Official NHA Assessment
Race 9: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING THURSDAY 23 NOVEMBER FM 68 HANDICAP (F & M) (For Fillies and Mares)
Line Horse
Time Is Ticking
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 17
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
6 / 17
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
9 / 17
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Back To The Future 2 59.5 1 0.00 0.0 70 79 70 +0 2 Sweet Basil 2 59.0 2 1.20 0.0 80 82 82 +2 3 Efficient Trader 2 54.5 3 1.25 0.0 57 73 73 +16 4 Time Is Ticking 3 58.5 4 2.75 7.0 65 65 65 +0 5 Bad Hair Day 2 52.0 5 3.00 0.0 52 66 66 +14 6 Mighty Goddess 2 57.5 6 4.75 0.0 63 75 75 +12 7 Count Your Chances 5 53.5 7 5.75 0.0 63 67 67 +4 8 Southern Style 5 57.0 8 6.00 0.0 70 74 74 +4 9 Storm Jewel 3 52.0 9 7.25 7.0 51 50 50 -1 10 Meet The Captain 4 53.5 10 10.50 4.0 55 59 59 +4 11 Run For Isla 3 57.0 11 10.75 7.0 62 60 60 -2 12 Rock On Captain 3 56.0 12 11.25 7.0 60 58 58 -2 13 Petunia 4 52.5 13 12.00 4.0 49 57 57 +8 14 Si Veloce 4 58.0 14 12.05 4.0 78 68 68 -10 99 Risky Business 3 54.0 99 0.00 7.0 - 54 54 +0 99 Mia Fiore 4 62.0 99 0.00 4.0 - 76 76 +0 99 Secret Recipe 5 60.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 81 81 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Back To The Future | 70 | 74 | 70 | +4 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | Sweet Basil | 80 | 81 | 82 | -1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 3 | Efficient Trader | 57 | 57 | 73 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 4 | Time Is Ticking Line | 65 | 60 | 65 | -5 | 7.0 | ||
| 5 | Bad Hair Day | 52 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 0.0 | - | |
| 6 | Mighty Goddess | 63 | 73 | 75 | -2 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Count Your Chances | 63 | 51 | 67 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | Southern Style | 70 | 54 | 74 | -20 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Storm Jewel | 51 | 48 | 50 | -2 | 7.0 | - | |
| 10 | Meet The Captain | 55 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 4.0 | - | |
| 11 | Run For Isla | 62 | 58 | 60 | -2 | 7.0 | - | |
| 12 | Rock On Captain | 60 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 7.0 | - | |
| 13 | Petunia | 49 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 4.0 | - | |
| 14 | Si Veloce | 78 | 50 | 68 | -18 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | Risky Business | - | 75 | 54 | +21 | 7.0 | - | |
| 99 | Mia Fiore | - | 77 | 76 | +1 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | Secret Recipe | - | 73 | 81 | -8 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points