Official NHA Assessment
Race 1: WELCOME TO NELSON MANDELA BAY MAIDEN PLATE (For Maidens. R15 000 Win bonus ROA Members)
Line Horse
Raptor Island
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 8
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 8
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
5 / 8
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Pompei Warning 2 56.0 1 0.00 4.0 72 54 54 -18 2 Concerto 4 57.5 2 1.50 7.0 - 51 51 +51 3 Raptor Island 2 60.0 3 3.25 4.0 62 62 62 +0 4 Swiss Walt 4 60.0 4 4.50 7.0 73 56 63 -10 5 Sebastian's Angel 2 53.5 5 9.00 4.0 60 49 50 -10 6 Double Decker 3 60.0 6 11.25 6.0 - 58 58 +58 7 The Business 2 60.0 7 12.75 4.0 60 62 62 +2 8 Goosebumps 2 60.0 8 12.85 4.0 77 62 67 -10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pompei Warning | 72 | 75 | 54 | +21 | 4.0 | - | |
| 2 | Concerto | - | 73 | 51 | +22 | 7.0 | - | |
| 3 | Raptor Island Line | 62 | 61 | 62 | -1 | 4.0 | ||
| 4 | Swiss Walt | 73 | 74 | 63 | +11 | 7.0 | - | |
| 5 | Sebastian's Angel | 60 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 4.0 | - | |
| 6 | Double Decker | - | - | 58 | -58 | 6.0 | - | |
| 7 | The Business | 60 | 58 | 62 | -4 | 4.0 | - | |
| 8 | Goosebumps | 77 | 75 | 67 | +8 | 4.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points