Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT FAIRVIEW RACEMEETING TUESDAY 19 DECEMBER MR 80 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Cruzador
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 10
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 10
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
7 / 10
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 First Origin 2 60.5 1 0.00 4.0 89 73 89 +0 2 Life On Mars 4 60.0 2 0.25 7.0 80 66 70 -10 3 Cruzador 6 57.0 3 3.25 0.0 74 74 74 +0 4 Putins Promise 5 57.5 4 3.35 0.0 75 75 75 +0 5 Notorix 6 58.0 5 4.10 0.0 76 76 76 +0 6 Father's Frost 7 56.5 6 4.20 0.0 72 73 73 +1 7 Timbavati River 3 55.0 7 4.30 6.0 70 58 60 -10 8 Whatever Next 6 61.5 8 5.05 0.0 83 83 83 +0 9 War Launch 2 52.0 9 7.30 4.0 72 56 62 -10 10 Cool Winter 2 61.5 10 8.05 4.0 83 75 75 -8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | First Origin | 89 | 91 | 89 | +2 | 4.0 | - | |
| 2 | Life On Mars | 80 | 87 | 70 | +17 | 7.0 | - | |
| 3 | Cruzador Line | 74 | 61 | 74 | -13 | 0.0 | ||
| 4 | Putins Promise | 75 | 73 | 75 | -2 | 0.0 | - | |
| 5 | Notorix | 76 | 68 | 76 | -8 | 0.0 | - | |
| 6 | Father's Frost | 72 | 62 | 73 | -11 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Timbavati River | 70 | 79 | 60 | +19 | 6.0 | - | |
| 8 | Whatever Next | 83 | 73 | 83 | -10 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | War Launch | 72 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 4.0 | - | |
| 10 | Cool Winter | 83 | 78 | 75 | +3 | 4.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points