Official NHA Assessment
Race 9: Hollywoodbets BRIGHT FUTURE FM 70 HANDICAP (F & M) (For Fillies and Mares)
Line Horse
Blush Of Dawn
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 17
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
8 / 17
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
6 / 17
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Chelsea Flower 6 56.5 1 0.00 0.0 63 71 63 +0 2 Shona Kirsty Yves 3 52.5 2 0.25 6.0 58 51 51 -7 3 Blush Of Dawn 8 52.0 3 1.30 0.0 62 62 62 +0 4 Sky Cafe 3 56.5 4 3.00 6.0 63 59 59 -4 5 Swiss Paradise 3 54.0 5 3.10 6.0 58 54 54 -4 6 Cinnamon Blush 3 58.5 6 4.70 6.0 67 63 63 -4 7 Bright Star 2 60.5 7 4.80 4.0 71 71 71 +0 8 Sting Ray 3 60.0 8 6.30 6.0 70 66 66 -4 9 Time Is Ticking 3 57.5 9 6.40 6.0 65 61 61 -4 10 Star Choice 5 60.0 10 8.30 0.0 70 78 78 +8 11 Gimme A Lullaby 3 54.5 11 8.35 6.0 59 55 55 -4 12 Secret Winx 2 59.0 12 9.25 4.0 76 68 68 -8 99 Aspoestertjie 5 61.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 81 81 +0 99 Flying The Star 4 54.0 99 0.00 7.0 - 52 52 +0 99 Harley's Fate 2 60.5 99 0.00 4.0 - 71 71 +0 99 Arverni Princess 2 59.0 99 0.00 4.0 - 68 68 +0 99 Poppy Of Bayeux 3 55.0 99 0.00 6.0 - 56 56 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Flower | 63 | 77 | 63 | +14 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | Shona Kirsty Yves | 58 | 60 | 51 | +9 | 6.0 | - | |
| 3 | Blush Of Dawn Line | 62 | 64 | 62 | +2 | 0.0 | ||
| 4 | Sky Cafe | 63 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 5 | Swiss Paradise | 58 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 6.0 | - | |
| 6 | Cinnamon Blush | 67 | 66 | 63 | +3 | 6.0 | - | |
| 7 | Bright Star | 71 | 69 | 71 | -2 | 4.0 | - | |
| 8 | Sting Ray | 70 | 73 | 66 | +7 | 6.0 | - | |
| 9 | Time Is Ticking | 65 | 60 | 61 | -1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 10 | Star Choice | 70 | 77 | 78 | -1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | Gimme A Lullaby | 59 | 59 | 55 | +4 | 6.0 | - | |
| 12 | Secret Winx | 76 | 69 | 68 | +1 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | Aspoestertjie | - | 68 | 81 | -13 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Flying The Star | - | 67 | 52 | +15 | 7.0 | - | |
| 99 | Harley's Fate | - | 67 | 71 | -4 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | Arverni Princess | - | 67 | 68 | -1 | 4.0 | - | |
| 99 | Poppy Of Bayeux | - | 57 | 56 | +1 | 6.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points