Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: NEXT TURFFONTEIN RACEMEETING SUNDAY 28 JANUARY FM 68 HANDICAP (F & M) (For Fillies and Mares)

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Line Horse
Cerulean Dancer
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 13
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 13
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
7 / 13
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Twice As Wild        6    53.5    1    0.00     0.0   55    62           55    +0
2    Count Your Chances   5    54.5    2    0.20     0.0   57    64           64    +7
3    Cerulean Dancer      2    56.0    3    0.50     3.5   60    60           60    +0
4    Smelting             7    56.0    4    1.50     0.0   60    67           67    +7
5    Risky Business       3    54.0    5    2.80     5.0   55    53           53    -2
6    Mix The Magic        3    53.0    6    3.40     5.0   57    51           51    -6
7    Mandalay             3    52.0    7    3.65     5.0   52    49           49    -3
8    Dancing Dora         6    58.5    8    4.55     0.0   65    72           72    +7
9    Efficient Trader     2    53.0    9    5.25     3.5   59    54           54    -5
10   Raining Rubies       5    57.5    10   5.50     0.0   63    70           70    +7
11   Tiz Magic            2    52.5    11   8.80     3.5   53    53           53    +0
12   Ashanti Sword        2    57.0    12   12.80    3.5   62    62           62    +0
99   Life Lesson          3    61.0    99   0.00     5.0   -     67           67    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Twice As Wild 55 51 55 -4 0.0 -
2 Count Your Chances 57 51 64 -13 0.0 -
3 Cerulean Dancer Line 60 71 60 +11 3.5
4 Smelting 60 52 67 -15 0.0 -
5 Risky Business 55 75 53 +22 5.0 -
6 Mix The Magic 57 52 51 +1 5.0 -
7 Mandalay 52 53 49 +4 5.0 -
8 Dancing Dora 65 53 72 -19 0.0 -
9 Efficient Trader 59 57 54 +3 3.5 -
10 Raining Rubies 63 75 70 +5 0.0 -
11 Tiz Magic 53 52 53 -1 3.5 -
12 Ashanti Sword 62 52 62 -10 3.5 -
99 Life Lesson - 49 67 -18 5.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points