Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT FAIRVIEW RACEMEETING FRIDAY 25 FEBRUARY CLASSIFIED STAKES (For horses with nett rating of 71 and below)
Line Horse
Winter Vacation
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
2 / 18
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
5 / 18
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
7 / 18
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Storm Chaser 4 58.0 1 0.00 5.0 64 65 65 +1 2 Sanctity 4 54.0 2 2.25 5.0 58 57 57 -1 3 The Ghan 4 55.5 3 3.50 5.0 67 60 60 -7 4 Paris Opera 4 58.5 4 3.75 5.0 69 66 66 -3 5 Winter Vacation 4 56.0 5 3.80 5.0 61 61 61 +0 6 Timkat 7 58.0 6 4.30 0.0 64 75 75 +11 7 Strada Statale 5 58.5 7 4.55 0.0 71 76 76 +5 8 Masterful 6 58.0 8 4.80 0.0 66 75 75 +9 9 Just The Wind 4 51.0 9 4.90 5.0 59 51 51 -8 10 Chaumaso 5 54.0 10 6.15 0.0 55 67 67 +12 11 Emperors Decree 4 60.0 11 6.40 5.0 70 69 69 -1 12 Bethel 6 60.0 12 7.15 0.0 74 79 79 +5 13 Silent Observer 3 54.5 13 12.65 4.5 68 59 59 -9 14 Bumrah 4 54.0 14 15.90 5.0 58 57 57 -1 15 Curly Top 3 54.5 15 18.65 4.5 67 59 59 -8 16 Livingstone 4 55.5 16 19.15 5.0 40 60 60 +20 17 Zacpack Assassin 3 58.0 17 99.99 4.5 70 66 66 -4 99 Ovation 3 58.0 99 0.00 4.5 - 66 66 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm Chaser | 64 | 69 | 65 | +4 | 5.0 | - | |
| 2 | Sanctity | 58 | 61 | 57 | +4 | 5.0 | - | |
| 3 | The Ghan | 67 | 62 | 60 | +2 | 5.0 | - | |
| 4 | Paris Opera | 69 | 66 | 66 | ✓ Match | 5.0 | - | |
| 5 | Winter Vacation Line | 61 | 55 | 61 | -6 | 5.0 | ||
| 6 | Timkat | 64 | 58 | 75 | -17 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Strada Statale | 71 | 57 | 76 | -19 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | Masterful | 66 | 65 | 75 | -10 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Just The Wind | 59 | 51 | 51 | ✓ Match | 5.0 | - | |
| 10 | Chaumaso | 55 | 54 | 67 | -13 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | Emperors Decree | 70 | 66 | 69 | -3 | 5.0 | - | |
| 12 | Bethel | 74 | 76 | 79 | -3 | 0.0 | - | |
| 13 | Silent Observer | 68 | 65 | 59 | +6 | 4.5 | - | |
| 14 | Bumrah | 58 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 5.0 | - | |
| 15 | Curly Top | 67 | 60 | 59 | +1 | 4.5 | - | |
| 16 | Livingstone | 40 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 5.0 | - | |
| 17 | Zacpack Assassin | 70 | 70 | 66 | +4 | 4.5 | - | |
| 99 | Ovation | - | 65 | 66 | -1 | 4.5 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points