Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING TUESDAY 20 FEBRUARY FM 74 HANDICAP (F & M) (For Fillies and Mares)

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Line Horse
Law Of Success
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 11
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 11
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 11
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Cerulean Dancer      2    53.0    1    0.00     3.0   60    63           60    +0
2    Gimme The Flame      5    54.0    2    1.00     0.0   62    71           71    +9
3    Law Of Success       3    59.0    3    2.25     4.5   72    72           72    +0
4    Lady Crusade         3    57.5    4    2.75     4.5   69    69           69    +0
5    Mandalay             3    52.0    5    3.50     4.5   52    58           58    +6
6    Godspeed             2    58.0    6    7.25     3.0   84    73           74    -10
7    Kill Shot            2    53.0    7    8.00     3.0   60    63           63    +3
99   Life Lesson          3    57.0    99   0.00     4.5   -     68           68    +0
99   Simply Magic         3    56.5    99   0.00     4.5   -     67           67    +0
99   Sugary Sweet         2    53.0    99   0.00     3.0   -     63           63    +0
99   Woman Of Substance   3    58.0    99   0.00     4.5   -     70           70    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Cerulean Dancer 60 71 60 +11 3.0 -
2 Gimme The Flame 62 50 71 -21 0.0 -
3 Law Of Success Line 72 81 72 +9 4.5
4 Lady Crusade 69 67 69 -2 4.5 -
5 Mandalay 52 53 58 -5 4.5 -
6 Godspeed 84 60 74 -14 3.0 -
7 Kill Shot 60 54 63 -9 3.0 -
99 Life Lesson - 49 68 -19 4.5 -
99 Simply Magic - 67 67 ✓ Match 4.5 -
99 Sugary Sweet - 56 63 -7 3.0 -
99 Woman Of Substance - 62 70 -8 4.5 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points