Official NHA Assessment

Race 9: Hollywoodbets BRIGHT FUTURE MR 68 HANDICAP (Open)

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Line Horse
Lucretius
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 9
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
0 / 9
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 9
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Khanyisa Indlela     3    58.0    1    0.00     4.5   67    49           67    +0
2    Tin Cup              3    59.0    2    0.20     4.5   66    51           56    -10
3    Lucretius            6    60.0    3    0.90     0.0   68    68           68    +0
4    Eventidor            6    58.5    4    1.40     0.0   65    64           64    -1
5    San Marzano          3    53.0    5    2.40     4.5   54    43           44    -10
6    King Bavarian        5    53.5    6    3.50     0.0   55    52           52    -3
7    Galaxy Explorer      4    60.0    7    5.50     2.0   77    58           67    -10
8    Brotherhoodofmagic   2    57.0    8    5.65     0.0   71    56           61    -10
99   Tobacconist          2    57.0    99   0.00     0.0   -     56           56    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Khanyisa Indlela 67 74 67 +7 4.5 -
2 Tin Cup 66 74 56 +18 4.5 -
3 Lucretius Line 68 64 68 -4 0.0
4 Eventidor 65 89 64 +25 0.0 -
5 San Marzano 54 53 44 +9 4.5 -
6 King Bavarian 55 67 52 +15 0.0 -
7 Galaxy Explorer 77 60 67 -7 2.0 -
8 Brotherhoodofmagic 71 68 61 +7 0.0 -
99 Tobacconist - 81 56 +25 0.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points