Official NHA Assessment

Race 1: WELCOME TO NELSON MANDELA BAY MAIDEN JUVENILE PLATE (For 2 yo R100 000 Win BSA / CRS Bonus)

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Line Horse
None identified
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 7
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
1 / 7
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
5 / 7
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Project Runway       3    57.5    1    0.00     2.5   -     -            -     +0
2    Confetti             2    57.5    2    1.25     1.5   -     -            -     +0
3    Deco Var             2    60.0    3    6.75     1.5   -     -            -     +0
4    Natural Wonder       3    53.5    4    12.25    2.5   -     -            -     +0
5    Miss Prior           3    57.5    5    21.25    2.5   -     -            -     +0
6    Sandy's Princess     2    57.5    6    26.25    1.5   -     -            -     +0
99   Serendipitous        3    57.5    99   0.00     2.5   -     -            -     +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Project Runway - 79 - +79 2.5 -
2 Confetti - 81 - +81 1.5 -
3 Deco Var - 71 - +71 1.5 -
4 Natural Wonder - 55 - +55 2.5 -
5 Miss Prior - 61 - +61 2.5 -
6 Sandy's Princess - - - ✓ Match 1.5 -
99 Serendipitous - 60 - - 2.5 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points