Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT FAIRVIEW RACEMEETING TUESDAY 4 MARCH CLASSIFIED STAKES (For horses with nett rating of 74 and below)
Line Horse
Flower Festival
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 17
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
7 / 17
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 17
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Igugulethu 2 58.0 1 0.00 0.0 70 76 76 +6 2 Globetonic 6 58.0 2 0.10 0.0 67 76 76 +9 3 Flower Festival 4 57.0 3 2.60 2.0 72 72 72 +0 4 Russian Empire 5 54.0 4 3.85 0.0 61 69 69 +8 5 Grand Oasis 3 60.0 5 3.95 3.0 79 75 75 -4 6 Potent Captain 4 58.0 6 4.20 2.0 67 73 73 +6 7 Below Deck 4 57.0 7 4.95 2.0 72 70 70 -2 8 Mr Belvedere 4 60.0 8 6.70 2.0 74 76 76 +2 9 Magnum Fire 7 54.0 9 7.20 0.0 61 68 68 +7 10 Flash Lightning 4 58.0 10 7.45 2.0 68 72 72 +4 11 Legal Thriller 4 60.0 11 7.50 2.0 73 76 76 +3 12 Barzalona 6 56.0 12 12.50 0.0 74 72 72 -2 13 Ginger Palace 3 50.5 13 13.75 3.0 65 55 55 -10 14 Graduation Time 4 58.0 14 20.00 2.0 70 72 72 +2 15 Crimson Comet 3 58.0 15 25.25 3.0 76 70 70 -6 16 King's Sailor 3 56.0 16 25.75 3.0 71 66 66 -5 99 Absolu Noir 8 52.0 99 0.00 0.0 - 64 64 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Igugulethu | 70 | 83 | 76 | +7 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | Globetonic | 67 | 77 | 76 | +1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 3 | Flower Festival Line | 72 | 70 | 72 | -2 | 2.0 | ||
| 4 | Russian Empire | 61 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 5 | Grand Oasis | 79 | 72 | 75 | -3 | 3.0 | - | |
| 6 | Potent Captain | 67 | 54 | 73 | -19 | 2.0 | - | |
| 7 | Below Deck | 72 | 72 | 70 | +2 | 2.0 | - | |
| 8 | Mr Belvedere | 74 | 55 | 76 | -21 | 2.0 | - | |
| 9 | Magnum Fire | 61 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 0.0 | - | |
| 10 | Flash Lightning | 68 | 69 | 72 | -3 | 2.0 | - | |
| 11 | Legal Thriller | 73 | 70 | 76 | -6 | 2.0 | - | |
| 12 | Barzalona | 74 | 66 | 72 | -6 | 0.0 | - | |
| 13 | Ginger Palace | 65 | 55 | 55 | ✓ Match | 3.0 | - | |
| 14 | Graduation Time | 70 | 70 | 72 | -2 | 2.0 | - | |
| 15 | Crimson Comet | 76 | 72 | 70 | +2 | 3.0 | - | |
| 16 | King's Sailor | 71 | 67 | 66 | +1 | 3.0 | - | |
| 99 | Absolu Noir | - | 50 | 64 | -14 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points