Mr L J Erasmus (Jnr)

This is a level-stakes simulation: imagine backing every runner with the same 1-unit bet at the starting price (SP). The line is the running total — rising when winners pay more than the losers cost, falling on a losing run. It measures whether blindly following this trainer would have made money, which is a tougher and more honest test than strike rate alone.

Each runner settles as:
win → + (decimal odds − 1)  ·  lose → − 1.
So a winner at 5/1 returns +5.0 units, a winner at 2/1 returns +2.0, and every loser costs −1.0. Fractional SPs (e.g. 9/4) are converted to decimal — 9÷4 + 1 = 3.25 — before settling.

This trainer's record 23 runners with a priced SP, staking 23 units in total → a profit of +8.2 units, an ROI of +35.6% (profit ÷ total staked).

Only runners with a recorded SP are included, so the bet count here can be lower than total runners. It assumes you take SP on every runner with no selectivity — a baseline, not a betting tip. It ignores Rule 4 deductions, dead-heats, and any each-way element; a flat or rising line is the signal worth noting.