Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT FAIRVIEW RACEMEETING FRIDAY 8 APRIL MR 68 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Jet Mirage
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 18
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
1 / 18
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
16 / 18
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Narcos 3 55.0 1 0.00 3.0 62 65 62 +0 2 Jet Mirage 3 60.5 2 0.10 3.0 76 76 76 +0 3 Red Bishop 5 52.5 3 1.35 0.0 52 66 66 +14 4 Picture The Moment 4 53.0 4 2.10 3.5 54 60 60 +6 5 Winter Vacation 4 55.0 5 2.35 3.5 58 64 64 +6 6 Jean Paul 3 53.0 6 2.60 3.0 61 61 61 +0 7 Toureiro 5 54.5 7 2.85 0.0 57 70 70 +13 8 Emperors Decree 4 61.0 8 3.60 3.5 70 76 76 +6 9 Wicked Grin 5 52.5 9 3.85 0.0 53 66 66 +13 10 The Sands 6 56.0 10 10.60 0.0 59 73 73 +14 11 Born A Star 3 60.5 11 12.10 3.0 73 76 76 +3 12 Bethel 6 61.0 12 12.60 0.0 74 83 83 +9 13 Ideal View 6 58.5 13 13.10 0.0 69 78 78 +9 14 Jaquar Cat 3 55.0 14 13.20 3.0 62 65 65 +3 15 Guaquistador 4 52.0 15 13.45 3.5 50 58 58 +8 16 Africanroyaljewel 4 56.0 16 15.20 3.5 60 66 66 +6 17 The Ghan 4 58.5 17 16.70 3.5 65 71 71 +6 18 March Preview 7 60.5 18 18.20 0.0 69 82 82 +13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narcos | 62 | 86 | 62 | +24 | 3.0 | - | |
| 2 | Jet Mirage Line | 76 | 100 | 76 | +24 | 3.0 | ||
| 3 | Red Bishop | 52 | 50 | 66 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 4 | Picture The Moment | 54 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 3.5 | - | |
| 5 | Winter Vacation | 58 | 55 | 64 | -9 | 3.5 | - | |
| 6 | Jean Paul | 61 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 3.0 | - | |
| 7 | Toureiro | 57 | 66 | 70 | -4 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | Emperors Decree | 70 | 66 | 76 | -10 | 3.5 | - | |
| 9 | Wicked Grin | 53 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 0.0 | - | |
| 10 | The Sands | 59 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | Born A Star | 73 | 64 | 76 | -12 | 3.0 | - | |
| 12 | Bethel | 74 | 76 | 83 | -7 | 0.0 | - | |
| 13 | Ideal View | 69 | 90 | 78 | +12 | 0.0 | - | |
| 14 | Jaquar Cat | 62 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 3.0 | - | |
| 15 | Guaquistador | 50 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 3.5 | - | |
| 16 | Africanroyaljewel | 60 | 56 | 66 | -10 | 3.5 | - | |
| 17 | The Ghan | 65 | 62 | 71 | -9 | 3.5 | - | |
| 18 | March Preview | 69 | 57 | 82 | -25 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points