Official NHA Assessment
Race 9: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING THURSDAY 3 JULY MR 72 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Guerilla Warfare
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
2 / 20
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
7 / 20
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 20
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Sovereigns Call 4 59.0 1 0.00 0.5 70 73 70 +0 2 Unsolved Riddle 3 60.0 2 0.25 1.5 72 73 73 +1 3 Guerilla Warfare 3 59.5 3 3.15 1.5 74 74 74 +0 4 Spy Story 3 60.0 4 3.65 1.5 75 74 74 -1 5 After Hours 7 59.0 5 3.70 0.0 70 75 75 +5 6 Oklahoma Twister 4 54.5 6 4.45 0.5 61 64 64 +3 7 Sheets And Goggles 3 54.0 7 4.95 1.5 68 61 61 -7 8 Godspeed 2 57.5 8 5.25 0.0 67 71 71 +4 9 Pretty In Pearls 3 54.0 9 7.05 1.5 68 61 61 -7 10 Sunset Warrior 2 56.0 10 8.25 0.0 85 68 75 -10 11 Oh My Gucci Girl 3 54.0 11 9.05 1.5 71 61 61 -10 12 Crepuscolo 4 55.5 12 9.10 0.5 63 66 66 +3 13 Messalina 3 57.5 13 10.80 1.5 73 68 68 -5 14 Last Ginger 4 59.0 14 10.85 0.5 70 73 73 +3 15 Perini Palace 4 54.5 15 12.65 0.5 61 64 64 +3 16 Vava Vegas 5 57.5 16 14.15 0.0 67 71 71 +4 17 Walled Garden 4 57.0 17 14.90 0.5 66 69 69 +3 18 Libeccio 5 57.5 18 99.99 0.0 67 71 71 +4 99 Calida 2 58.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 73 73 +0 99 Apache Chief 4 59.5 99 0.00 0.5 - 74 74 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sovereigns Call | 70 | 70 | 70 | ✓ Match | 0.5 | - | |
| 2 | Unsolved Riddle | 72 | 77 | 73 | +4 | 1.5 | - | |
| 3 | Guerilla Warfare Line | 74 | 75 | 74 | +1 | 1.5 | ||
| 4 | Spy Story | 75 | 66 | 74 | -8 | 1.5 | - | |
| 5 | After Hours | 70 | 79 | 75 | +4 | 0.0 | - | |
| 6 | Oklahoma Twister | 61 | 71 | 64 | +7 | 0.5 | - | |
| 7 | Sheets And Goggles | 68 | 63 | 61 | +2 | 1.5 | - | |
| 8 | Godspeed | 67 | 60 | 71 | -11 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Pretty In Pearls | 68 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 1.5 | - | |
| 10 | Sunset Warrior | 85 | 76 | 75 | +1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | Oh My Gucci Girl | 71 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 1.5 | - | |
| 12 | Crepuscolo | 63 | 58 | 66 | -8 | 0.5 | - | |
| 13 | Messalina | 73 | 71 | 68 | +3 | 1.5 | - | |
| 14 | Last Ginger | 70 | 64 | 73 | -9 | 0.5 | - | |
| 15 | Perini Palace | 61 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 0.5 | - | |
| 16 | Vava Vegas | 67 | 58 | 71 | -13 | 0.0 | - | |
| 17 | Walled Garden | 66 | 66 | 69 | -3 | 0.5 | - | |
| 18 | Libeccio | 67 | 62 | 71 | -9 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Calida | - | 72 | 73 | -1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Apache Chief | - | 74 | 74 | ✓ Match | 0.5 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points