Official NHA Assessment
Race 1: WELCOME TO NELSON MANDELA BAY OPEN MAIDEN (For Maidens)
Line Horse
Away With Red
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 20
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 20
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 20
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Flight Engineer 3 56.5 1 0.00 10.5 63 62 62 -1 2 The Roaring Rock 2 57.5 2 4.75 7.0 79 71 71 -8 3 Away With Red 3 58.0 3 5.25 10.5 65 65 65 +0 4 Opera Verse 4 48.0 4 5.75 12.0 55 42 45 -10 5 Physiologus 2 54.5 5 7.00 7.0 64 65 65 +1 6 Originator 4 61.0 6 7.10 12.0 - 68 68 +68 7 Duchess Of Seville 4 49.5 7 8.35 12.0 58 45 48 -10 8 Monocle 3 49.0 8 8.60 10.5 55 47 47 -8 9 Darlingbudsofmay 2 52.0 9 8.85 7.0 69 60 60 -9 10 American Eagle 3 56.5 10 9.10 10.5 63 62 62 -1 11 Lady Penny 2 57.0 11 9.20 7.0 - 70 70 +70 12 Sombreuil 2 47.5 12 13.20 7.0 69 51 59 -10 13 Epic Thunder 3 49.0 13 14.95 10.5 44 47 47 +3 14 Quick Crown 2 52.0 14 16.20 7.0 44 60 60 +16 15 Waka Waka 6 58.5 15 29.45 0.0 - 87 87 +87 16 Throw A Party 2 51.5 16 99.99 7.0 69 59 59 -10 99 Elusive Black 3 61.0 99 0.00 10.5 - 71 71 +0 99 Bright Future 3 56.5 99 0.00 10.5 - 62 62 +0 99 Hokusai 3 49.0 99 0.00 10.5 - 47 47 +0 99 Klein Jan 3 59.0 99 0.00 10.5 - 67 67 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flight Engineer | 63 | 58 | 62 | -4 | 10.5 | - | |
| 2 | The Roaring Rock | 79 | 79 | 71 | +8 | 7.0 | - | |
| 3 | Away With Red Line | 65 | 62 | 65 | -3 | 10.5 | ||
| 4 | Opera Verse | 55 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 12.0 | - | |
| 5 | Physiologus | 64 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 7.0 | - | |
| 6 | Originator | - | 67 | 68 | -1 | 12.0 | - | |
| 7 | Duchess Of Seville | 58 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 12.0 | - | |
| 8 | Monocle | 55 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 10.5 | - | |
| 9 | Darlingbudsofmay | 69 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 7.0 | - | |
| 10 | American Eagle | 63 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 10.5 | - | |
| 11 | Lady Penny | - | 63 | 70 | -7 | 7.0 | - | |
| 12 | Sombreuil | 69 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 7.0 | - | |
| 13 | Epic Thunder | 44 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 10.5 | - | |
| 14 | Quick Crown | 44 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 7.0 | - | |
| 15 | Waka Waka | - | - | 87 | -87 | 0.0 | - | |
| 16 | Throw A Party | 69 | 69 | 59 | +10 | 7.0 | - | |
| 99 | Elusive Black | - | 68 | 71 | -3 | 10.5 | - | |
| 99 | Bright Future | - | 60 | 62 | -2 | 10.5 | - | |
| 99 | Hokusai | - | 52 | 47 | +5 | 10.5 | - | |
| 99 | Klein Jan | - | 59 | 67 | -8 | 10.5 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points