Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING THURSDAY 18 SEPTEMBER MR 72 HANDICAP (Open)

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Line Horse
Guerilla Warfare
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
2 / 10
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
4 / 10
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
3 / 10
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Greenlight Racer     2    60.0    1    0.00     0.0   73    87           73    +0
2    Guerilla Warfare     3    61.0    2    1.40     8.5   75    75           75    +0
3    Mizzen Sword         3    59.5    3    4.65     8.5   72    69           69    -3
4    Trident King         3    60.0    4    5.45     8.5   72    70           70    -2
5    Libeccio             5    51.0    5    5.95     0.0   62    69           69    +7
6    Vava Vegas           5    55.0    6    9.05     0.0   62    77           77    +15
7    Casus Belli          3    58.0    7    10.05    8.5   69    66           66    -3
8    Viva De Janeiro      5    52.5    8    10.25    0.0   57    72           72    +15
9    Salt Lake City       2    57.5    9    14.75    0.0   84    82           82    -2
10   Panning Gold         3    56.5    10   99.99    8.5   66    63           63    -3
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Greenlight Racer 73 75 73 +2 0.0 -
2 Guerilla Warfare Line 75 75 75 ✓ Match 8.5
3 Mizzen Sword 72 66 69 -3 8.5 -
4 Trident King 72 65 70 -5 8.5 -
5 Libeccio 62 62 69 -7 0.0 -
6 Vava Vegas 62 58 77 -19 0.0 -
7 Casus Belli 69 64 66 -2 8.5 -
8 Viva De Janeiro 57 50 72 -22 0.0 -
9 Salt Lake City 84 82 82 ✓ Match 0.0 -
10 Panning Gold 66 68 63 +5 8.5 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points