Official NHA Assessment
Race 9: LUCKY FISH AVIATOR CLASS 4 (Open. Benchmark at 60.0kg = 82)
Line Horse
Tirpitz
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
3 / 17
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
5 / 17
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
10 / 17
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Cleartherunway 3 57.0 1 0.00 4.0 84 68 68 -16 2 Mister Nibbles 3 57.0 2 0.70 4.0 81 73 73 -8 3 Tirpitz 6 58.5 3 1.90 0.0 82 82 82 +0 4 Star Of The Future 3 58.0 4 2.10 4.0 78 73 73 -5 5 Industrialstrength 4 60.5 5 2.25 2.0 83 82 82 -1 6 Magma Magic 4 56.5 6 2.35 2.0 78 73 73 -5 7 Cowdray Park 3 57.5 7 3.15 4.0 80 71 71 -9 8 Numzaan 2 58.5 8 3.55 0.0 79 80 80 +1 9 Rooster Bradshaw 3 59.5 9 3.65 4.0 81 74 74 -7 10 Harun Al Rashid 3 59.5 10 4.35 4.0 81 73 73 -8 11 Jazz Cafe 3 60.5 11 4.50 4.0 83 75 75 -8 12 Elizabedi Gold 3 58.5 12 5.20 4.0 79 71 71 -8 13 Tobacconist 2 56.5 13 5.90 0.0 83 75 75 -8 14 Plaza Accord 2 61.5 14 8.80 0.0 85 85 85 +0 15 Take No Prisoners 2 57.5 15 99.99 0.0 85 77 77 -8 99 White Seahorse 2 59.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 81 81 +0 99 Town Crier 2 55.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 73 73 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleartherunway | 84 | 88 | 68 | +20 | 4.0 | - | |
| 2 | Mister Nibbles | 81 | 81 | 73 | +8 | 4.0 | - | |
| 3 | Tirpitz Line | 82 | 82 | 82 | ✓ Match | 0.0 | ||
| 4 | Star Of The Future | 78 | 78 | 73 | +5 | 4.0 | - | |
| 5 | Industrialstrength | 83 | 82 | 82 | ✓ Match | 2.0 | - | |
| 6 | Magma Magic | 78 | 81 | 73 | +8 | 2.0 | - | |
| 7 | Cowdray Park | 80 | 80 | 71 | +9 | 4.0 | - | |
| 8 | Numzaan | 79 | 79 | 80 | -1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Rooster Bradshaw | 81 | 78 | 74 | +4 | 4.0 | - | |
| 10 | Harun Al Rashid | 81 | 80 | 73 | +7 | 4.0 | - | |
| 11 | Jazz Cafe | 83 | 82 | 75 | +7 | 4.0 | - | |
| 12 | Elizabedi Gold | 79 | 78 | 71 | +7 | 4.0 | - | |
| 13 | Tobacconist | 83 | 81 | 75 | +6 | 0.0 | - | |
| 14 | Plaza Accord | 85 | 84 | 85 | -1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 15 | Take No Prisoners | 85 | 85 | 77 | +8 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | White Seahorse | - | 81 | 81 | ✓ Match | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Town Crier | - | 81 | 73 | +8 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points