Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT FAIRVIEW RACEMEETING FRIDAY 30 SEPTEMBER MR 72 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Vida Futura
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 15
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
0 / 15
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
12 / 15
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 War Man 3 58.0 1 0.00 9.5 70 68 70 +0 2 Ellis Island 4 56.5 2 1.00 6.0 65 76 76 +11 3 Vida Futura 3 58.0 3 2.75 9.5 70 70 70 +0 4 Flinders Range 3 54.0 4 2.85 9.5 61 62 62 +1 5 Drengs Ferry 3 57.0 5 2.95 9.5 68 68 68 +0 6 Secret Link 3 55.0 6 3.45 9.5 64 63 63 -1 7 Bold Strike 5 59.0 7 3.95 0.0 70 90 90 +20 8 Ideal Time 3 56.0 8 4.20 9.5 65 65 65 +0 9 Magnum Fire 7 60.5 9 4.45 0.0 73 92 92 +19 10 Almas Tower 2 54.0 10 4.70 0.0 79 79 79 +0 11 American Landing 7 58.5 11 5.70 0.0 72 88 88 +16 12 Almighwaar 3 57.0 12 7.45 9.5 68 66 66 -2 13 Dirty Martini 4 53.5 13 13.95 6.0 58 66 66 +8 14 Head Gardener 3 52.0 14 16.45 9.5 56 56 56 +0 15 Cairon 5 62.0 15 21.70 0.0 76 95 95 +19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | War Man | 70 | 75 | 70 | +5 | 9.5 | - | |
| 2 | Ellis Island | 65 | 66 | 76 | -10 | 6.0 | - | |
| 3 | Vida Futura Line | 70 | 66 | 70 | -4 | 9.5 | ||
| 4 | Flinders Range | 61 | 71 | 62 | +9 | 9.5 | - | |
| 5 | Drengs Ferry | 68 | 62 | 68 | -6 | 9.5 | - | |
| 6 | Secret Link | 64 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 9.5 | - | |
| 7 | Bold Strike | 70 | 65 | 90 | -25 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | Ideal Time | 65 | 54 | 65 | -11 | 9.5 | - | |
| 9 | Magnum Fire | 73 | 59 | 92 | -33 | 0.0 | - | |
| 10 | Almas Tower | 79 | 82 | 79 | +3 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | American Landing | 72 | 80 | 88 | -8 | 0.0 | - | |
| 12 | Almighwaar | 68 | 54 | 66 | -12 | 9.5 | - | |
| 13 | Dirty Martini | 58 | 50 | 66 | -16 | 6.0 | - | |
| 14 | Head Gardener | 56 | 66 | 56 | +10 | 9.5 | - | |
| 15 | Cairon | 76 | 73 | 95 | -22 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points