Official NHA Assessment

Race 8: NEXT TURFFONTEIN RACEMEETING THURSDAY 26 JANUARY CLASSIFIED STAKES (For horses with nett rating of 75 and below)

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Line Horse
Black Lightning
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 10
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
0 / 10
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
8 / 10
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
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Pos  Horse                Age  Weight  Fin  Lengths  WFA   Pre   Race Rating  New   Adj  
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1    Son Of Raj           5    52.0    1    0.00     0.0   71    75           75    +4
2    Celestial City       4    60.0    2    1.00     3.0   74    89           89    +15
3    Black Lightning      2    51.5    3    6.50     0.0   74    74           74    +0
4    Romeo's Magic        7    58.0    4    10.50    0.0   68    87           87    +19
5    Time Spirit          4    56.0    5    13.75    3.0   65    77           77    +12
6    Follow My Path       5    52.0    6    13.85    0.0   59    75           75    +16
7    Last Cheer           5    55.5    7    14.75    0.0   70    82           82    +12
8    Devilish Dancer      4    51.5    8    99.99    3.0   63    68           68    +5
9    Duke Of Rain         3    58.0    9    99.99    6.0   71    75           75    +4
99   Forged By Fire       3    58.0    99   0.00     6.0   -     75           75    +0
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Horse-by-Horse Comparison

Pos Horse Pre-Rating Official New Calculated Discrepancy WFA (kg) Line Horse Calculation
1 Son Of Raj 71 116 75 +41 0.0 -
2 Celestial City 74 92 89 +3 3.0 -
3 Black Lightning Line 74 64 74 -10 0.0
4 Romeo's Magic 68 73 87 -14 0.0 -
5 Time Spirit 65 60 77 -17 3.0 -
6 Follow My Path 59 54 75 -21 0.0 -
7 Last Cheer 70 72 82 -10 0.0 -
8 Devilish Dancer 63 50 68 -18 3.0 -
9 Duke Of Rain 71 70 75 -5 6.0 -
99 Forged By Fire - 66 75 -9 6.0 -
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
  1. Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
  2. Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
  3. Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
  4. Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
    Weight - Drag - WFA
  5. Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
  6. Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
  • Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
  • 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
  • WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
  • Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points