Official NHA Assessment
Race 5: GOLD CIRCLE RACING YOUTUBE CHANNEL MR 69 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Lucretius
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
2 / 13
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 13
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
6 / 13
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Majestic Power 3 54.5 1 0.00 5.0 58 43 58 +0 2 American Dream 3 57.0 2 0.25 5.0 63 48 53 -10 3 Lucretius 6 60.0 3 0.30 0.0 69 69 69 +0 4 Tom's Act 3 59.5 4 1.30 5.0 68 56 58 -10 5 Exceed Expectation 3 53.5 5 1.55 5.0 59 44 49 -10 6 Bugsy Malone 5 52.0 6 4.05 0.0 49 49 49 +0 7 Coromandel 4 53.0 7 4.10 2.5 55 46 46 -9 8 Barbatti 3 54.5 8 4.90 5.0 63 43 53 -10 9 Ravens Sword 3 59.0 9 5.40 5.0 67 52 57 -10 10 Lou Lou The Legend 3 56.0 10 5.50 5.0 71 46 61 -10 11 Lord Minver 3 52.0 11 7.30 5.0 53 38 43 -10 12 Immeasurable 5 61.0 12 8.10 0.0 71 66 66 -5 99 Fever 5 54.0 99 0.00 0.0 - 52 52 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Majestic Power | 58 | 63 | 58 | +5 | 5.0 | - | |
| 2 | American Dream | 63 | 81 | 53 | +28 | 5.0 | - | |
| 3 | Lucretius Line | 69 | 64 | 69 | -5 | 0.0 | ||
| 4 | Tom's Act | 68 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 5.0 | - | |
| 5 | Exceed Expectation | 59 | 52 | 49 | +3 | 5.0 | - | |
| 6 | Bugsy Malone | 49 | 49 | 49 | ✓ Match | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Coromandel | 55 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 2.5 | - | |
| 8 | Barbatti | 63 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 5.0 | - | |
| 9 | Ravens Sword | 67 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 5.0 | - | |
| 10 | Lou Lou The Legend | 71 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 5.0 | - | |
| 11 | Lord Minver | 53 | 53 | 43 | +10 | 5.0 | - | |
| 12 | Immeasurable | 71 | 72 | 66 | +6 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Fever | - | 52 | 52 | ✓ Match | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points