Official NHA Assessment
Race 1: WELCOME TO NELSON MANDELA BAY MAIDEN PLATE (F & M) (For Maiden F & M. R15 000 Win bonus ROA Members)
Line Horse
More Than A Dream
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 10
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
1 / 10
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
7 / 10
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Burn Baby Burn 2 59.0 1 0.00 0.0 67 68 68 +1 2 More Than A Dream 2 59.0 2 0.10 0.0 68 68 68 +0 3 Nairobi 3 60.0 3 5.10 6.0 61 58 58 -3 4 Kitty Mo 2 59.0 4 5.15 0.0 80 68 70 -10 5 Hat's Miracle 2 59.0 5 5.25 0.0 57 68 68 +11 6 Heartlight 2 60.0 6 6.50 0.0 54 70 70 +16 7 Lontano 2 59.0 7 12.00 0.0 30 68 68 +38 8 My Mistress 4 60.0 8 13.50 3.5 49 63 63 +14 9 Kit Kat Club 3 60.0 9 17.75 6.0 - 58 58 +58 99 Grace Upon Grace 2 59.0 99 0.00 0.0 - 68 68 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burn Baby Burn | 67 | 65 | 68 | -3 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | More Than A Dream Line | 68 | 61 | 68 | -7 | 0.0 | ||
| 3 | Nairobi | 61 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 6.0 | - | |
| 4 | Kitty Mo | 80 | 69 | 70 | -1 | 0.0 | - | |
| 5 | Hat's Miracle | 57 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 0.0 | - | |
| 6 | Heartlight | 54 | 48 | 70 | -22 | 0.0 | - | |
| 7 | Lontano | 30 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | My Mistress | 49 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 3.5 | - | |
| 9 | Kit Kat Club | - | 43 | 58 | -15 | 6.0 | - | |
| 99 | Grace Upon Grace | - | 60 | 68 | -8 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points