Official NHA Assessment
Race 7: SOUTH AFRICAN FILLIES SPRINT (Grade 1) brought to you by The Witness (For Fillies and Mares at Weight-For-Age)
Line Horse
Time Fo Orchids
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 16
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
3 / 16
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
10 / 16
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 October Morn 2 59.0 1 0.00 1.0 115 106 106 -9 2 Mrs Browning 5 60.0 2 0.15 0.0 113 110 110 -3 3 Winter Greeting 5 60.0 3 3.45 0.0 108 110 110 +2 4 Time Fo Orchids 5 60.0 4 3.85 0.0 110 110 110 +0 5 Shantastic 2 60.0 5 3.95 1.0 108 108 108 +0 6 Winter Cloud 2 59.0 6 4.25 1.0 114 106 106 -8 7 Shipholia 5 60.0 7 4.95 0.0 96 110 110 +14 8 Elegant Ice 4 59.0 8 5.65 2.5 102 103 103 +1 9 Kwinta's Light 3 60.0 9 6.05 2.0 110 106 106 -4 10 Gimme A Shot 2 60.0 10 6.10 1.0 106 108 108 +2 11 Convocation 5 60.0 11 7.30 0.0 97 110 110 +13 12 Baltic Secret 2 59.0 12 8.30 1.0 104 106 106 +2 13 One Fell Swoop 2 59.0 13 8.40 1.0 104 106 106 +2 14 White Pearl 4 59.0 14 9.00 2.5 112 103 103 -9 15 Reefway 2 60.0 15 10.00 1.0 98 108 108 +10 16 Asiye Phambili 3 60.0 16 99.99 2.0 111 106 106 -5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October Morn | 115 | 119 | 106 | +13 | 1.0 | - | |
| 2 | Mrs Browning | 113 | 115 | 110 | +5 | 0.0 | - | |
| 3 | Winter Greeting | 108 | 104 | 110 | -6 | 0.0 | - | |
| 4 | Time Fo Orchids Line | 110 | 109 | 110 | -1 | 0.0 | ||
| 5 | Shantastic | 108 | 109 | 108 | +1 | 1.0 | - | |
| 6 | Winter Cloud | 114 | 114 | 106 | +8 | 1.0 | - | |
| 7 | Shipholia | 96 | 104 | 110 | -6 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | Elegant Ice | 102 | 108 | 103 | +5 | 2.5 | - | |
| 9 | Kwinta's Light | 110 | 109 | 106 | +3 | 2.0 | - | |
| 10 | Gimme A Shot | 106 | 110 | 108 | +2 | 1.0 | - | |
| 11 | Convocation | 97 | 94 | 110 | -16 | 0.0 | - | |
| 12 | Baltic Secret | 104 | 98 | 106 | -8 | 1.0 | - | |
| 13 | One Fell Swoop | 104 | 97 | 106 | -9 | 1.0 | - | |
| 14 | White Pearl | 112 | 114 | 103 | +11 | 2.5 | - | |
| 15 | Reefway | 98 | 84 | 108 | -24 | 1.0 | - | |
| 16 | Asiye Phambili | 111 | 119 | 106 | +13 | 2.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points