Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: Hollywoodbets BRIGHT FUTURE MR 73 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Global Movement
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
1 / 17
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
5 / 17
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
6 / 17
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Jazz Festival 5 57.5 1 0.00 0.0 68 72 68 +0 2 Global Movement 6 53.0 2 1.05 0.0 67 67 67 +0 3 Ingqwele 3 57.0 3 1.65 8.5 84 57 74 -10 4 Hiawatha Goldberg 2 58.5 4 2.70 0.0 71 76 76 +5 5 Henry Harvey 2 60.0 5 3.00 0.0 90 79 80 -10 6 Run To Rio 4 60.0 6 3.10 6.0 74 67 67 -7 7 Nightjar 3 59.0 7 3.35 8.5 72 59 62 -10 8 Pongola 5 56.0 8 4.05 0.0 68 70 70 +2 9 Flyingcool 3 61.0 9 6.35 8.5 76 62 66 -10 10 Shotgun Willie 3 58.0 10 8.55 8.5 69 56 59 -10 11 Iron Will 4 59.0 11 11.25 6.0 71 63 63 -8 12 Noble Warrior 4 60.5 12 12.15 6.0 75 66 66 -9 13 Bom Bom 4 60.0 13 14.85 6.0 74 65 65 -9 14 Papa C 6 61.0 14 33.75 0.0 75 79 79 +4 99 Connoisseur 4 56.0 99 0.00 6.0 - 57 57 +0 99 Night Rocker 2 58.5 99 0.00 0.0 - 74 74 +0 99 Galaxy Explorer 4 56.0 99 0.00 6.0 - 57 57 +0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jazz Festival | 68 | 70 | 68 | +2 | 0.0 | - | |
| 2 | Global Movement Line | 67 | 65 | 67 | -2 | 0.0 | ||
| 3 | Ingqwele | 84 | 84 | 74 | +10 | 8.5 | - | |
| 4 | Hiawatha Goldberg | 71 | 57 | 76 | -19 | 0.0 | - | |
| 5 | Henry Harvey | 90 | 85 | 80 | +5 | 0.0 | - | |
| 6 | Run To Rio | 74 | 71 | 67 | +4 | 6.0 | - | |
| 7 | Nightjar | 72 | 67 | 62 | +5 | 8.5 | - | |
| 8 | Pongola | 68 | 66 | 70 | -4 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Flyingcool | 76 | 81 | 66 | +15 | 8.5 | - | |
| 10 | Shotgun Willie | 69 | 66 | 59 | +7 | 8.5 | - | |
| 11 | Iron Will | 71 | 63 | 63 | ✓ Match | 6.0 | - | |
| 12 | Noble Warrior | 75 | 54 | 66 | -12 | 6.0 | - | |
| 13 | Bom Bom | 74 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 14 | Papa C | 75 | 73 | 79 | -6 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Connoisseur | - | 56 | 57 | -1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 99 | Night Rocker | - | 77 | 74 | +3 | 0.0 | - | |
| 99 | Galaxy Explorer | - | 60 | 57 | +3 | 6.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points