Official NHA Assessment
Race 8: NEXT VAAL RACEMEETING THURSDAY 31 MARCH MR 68 HANDICAP (Open)
Line Horse
Duke Of Rain
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 16
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
2 / 16
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
13 / 16
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Flying Grace 4 61.5 1 0.00 2.0 71 82 71 +0 2 Clarkson 4 59.0 2 0.25 2.0 66 77 77 +11 3 Duke Of Rain 3 59.5 3 3.00 4.5 76 76 76 +0 4 Sophia's First 5 57.0 4 4.25 0.0 62 79 79 +17 5 Ablueazure 3 60.0 5 4.70 4.5 77 75 75 -2 6 Fort Wylie 4 52.0 6 4.75 2.0 52 63 63 +11 7 Kurt's Approval 7 51.0 7 6.50 0.0 55 65 65 +10 8 So Long Spring 7 56.0 8 8.25 0.0 60 75 75 +15 9 Attentive 5 57.5 9 8.45 0.0 63 78 78 +15 10 The Sash 6 55.5 10 8.50 0.0 59 74 74 +15 11 Khiza 3 58.0 11 9.75 4.5 73 70 70 -3 12 Kings Cup 8 56.0 12 12.00 0.0 60 75 75 +15 13 Orus Apollo 4 55.0 13 12.10 2.0 58 69 69 +11 14 Burning Ice 4 52.0 14 14.00 2.0 50 63 63 +13 15 Mister Blue Sky 4 58.5 15 14.95 2.0 65 76 76 +11 16 Waltzing Al 6 50.5 16 15.00 0.0 50 64 64 +14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flying Grace | 71 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 2.0 | - | |
| 2 | Clarkson | 66 | 75 | 77 | -2 | 2.0 | - | |
| 3 | Duke Of Rain Line | 76 | 70 | 76 | -6 | 4.5 | ||
| 4 | Sophia's First | 62 | 57 | 79 | -22 | 0.0 | - | |
| 5 | Ablueazure | 77 | 76 | 75 | +1 | 4.5 | - | |
| 6 | Fort Wylie | 52 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 2.0 | - | |
| 7 | Kurt's Approval | 55 | 60 | 65 | -5 | 0.0 | - | |
| 8 | So Long Spring | 60 | 51 | 75 | -24 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Attentive | 63 | 58 | 78 | -20 | 0.0 | - | |
| 10 | The Sash | 59 | 55 | 74 | -19 | 0.0 | - | |
| 11 | Khiza | 73 | 57 | 70 | -13 | 4.5 | - | |
| 12 | Kings Cup | 60 | 57 | 75 | -18 | 0.0 | - | |
| 13 | Orus Apollo | 58 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 2.0 | - | |
| 14 | Burning Ice | 50 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 2.0 | - | |
| 15 | Mister Blue Sky | 65 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 2.0 | - | |
| 16 | Waltzing Al | 50 | 45 | 64 | -19 | 0.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points