Official NHA Assessment
Race 1: WELCOME TO NELSON MANDELA BAY MAIDEN PLATE (For Maidens. R15 000 Win Bonus ROA Members)
Line Horse
Miss Prior
Reference for assessment
Exact Matches
0 / 13
Calculated = Official
Close Matches
1 / 13
Within 2 points
Significant Diffs
11 / 13
More than 5 points
Detailed Assessment
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pos Horse Age Weight Fin Lengths WFA Pre Race Rating New Adj ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Choc' Late 3 57.5 1 0.00 5.0 53 68 59 +6 2 Miss Prior 3 57.5 2 0.50 5.0 68 68 68 +0 3 And Action 4 56.0 3 2.50 6.0 64 63 63 -1 4 Global Chief 3 60.0 4 3.75 5.0 68 73 73 +5 5 Winter In Paris 4 57.5 5 5.00 6.0 66 66 66 +0 6 Sweet Cake 2 57.5 6 9.50 3.5 73 71 71 -2 7 Star Trooper 3 60.0 7 10.00 5.0 - 73 73 +73 8 Dynamite Jet 6 60.0 8 11.25 0.0 59 83 83 +24 9 Serendipitous 3 57.5 9 11.50 5.0 68 68 68 +0 10 Caughtubysurprise 3 57.5 10 12.50 5.0 - 68 68 +68 11 Pardon Me 5 60.0 11 13.00 0.0 - 83 83 +83 12 Epic Thunder 3 60.0 12 14.25 5.0 - 73 73 +73 13 Shooting Arrow 3 57.5 13 14.50 5.0 - 68 68 +68 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horse-by-Horse Comparison
| Pos | Horse | Pre-Rating | Official New | Calculated | Discrepancy | WFA (kg) | Line Horse | Calculation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Choc' Late | 53 | 56 | 59 | -3 | 5.0 | - | |
| 2 | Miss Prior Line | 68 | 61 | 68 | -7 | 5.0 | ||
| 3 | And Action | 64 | 62 | 63 | -1 | 6.0 | - | |
| 4 | Global Chief | 68 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 5.0 | - | |
| 5 | Winter In Paris | 66 | 60 | 66 | -6 | 6.0 | - | |
| 6 | Sweet Cake | 73 | 60 | 71 | -11 | 3.5 | - | |
| 7 | Star Trooper | - | 51 | 73 | -22 | 5.0 | - | |
| 8 | Dynamite Jet | 59 | 43 | 83 | -40 | 0.0 | - | |
| 9 | Serendipitous | 68 | 60 | 68 | -8 | 5.0 | - | |
| 10 | Caughtubysurprise | - | 52 | 68 | -16 | 5.0 | - | |
| 11 | Pardon Me | - | 53 | 83 | -30 | 0.0 | - | |
| 12 | Epic Thunder | - | 49 | 73 | -24 | 5.0 | - | |
| 13 | Shooting Arrow | - | 36 | 68 | -32 | 5.0 | - |
Assessment Methodology
Calculation Steps:
- Identify Line Horse - consistent performer used as reference
- Calculate WFA Allowance based on age, distance, and month
- Apply Drag Adjustment for beaten margin
- Calculate Actual Weight Performance:
Weight - Drag - WFA - Compare to Line Horse to determine race rating
- Apply special rules (maiden caps, layoff allowance)
Key Formulas:
- Drag Effect: Varies by distance (see Benchmarks page)
- 1 length ≈ 1kg at 1 mile (1600m)
- WFA Scale: Based on Admiral Rous's 1855 table
- Rating Points: 1kg = 2 rating points